Today, Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell spoke to Congress. In his remarks, Powell made it clear that the Fed is likely to hike rates again this year and that he is committed to reducing inflation to the 2% target. He also reiterated that despite the recent declines in the rate of inflation, it’s not even … Read more
The “Pause” Issue New CPI is lower, unless you count Core CPI which is sticky. Fed “pauses”, but raises rate target for the year and pours cold water on the “pivot” soon crowd. The $ATVI / $MSFT deal faces further hurdles. And the yield curve continues to indicate a coming recession. We also congratulate DKI … Read more
Here’s a little Twitter fun from last week. Original piece is here: Is Jerome Powell destroying the economy? For 2 years, DKI has been critical of the Fed for being too slow to raise rates. We also agree with FinTwit stars like @RudyHavenstein, @saifedean, @stackhodler, & @macrojack21 that we should #EndTheFed. But it’s not all … Read more
I like Wolf Richter’s work and subscribe to his blog Wolf Street. His work is detailed and he’s covered recent issues in the housing market as well or better than anyone. Yesterday, he released a piece on the huge San Francisco hotel where the owner handed the keys back to the lender at a massive … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. It showed an overall increase of 4.0% in the last year and .1% vs last month. The core CPI which excludes food and energy was up 5.3% for the last year and up .4% from last month. The market is encouraged by the decrease … Read more
The Real Estate Issue Commercial real estate is collapsing while home prices have remained relatively stable. Want to know how and why? We have you covered. Plus, there’s more Chinese data threatening a global slowdown and US consumers continue to spend even though it means running up more credit card debt. What do higher credit … Read more
The Inconsistent Data Issue DKI has been writing about inconsistent economic data since last November. We’re now seeing the ISM, PMI, goods and discretionary purchases all showing weakness. Lumber is down but housing prices haven’t crashed yet despite higher financing costs. Services and employment data all showing strength. Don’t know what all of those things … Read more
The Crisis Issue In this week’s 5 Things we examine a possible government debt default, a possible coming recession, the Federal Reserve’s continuing insistence that we’re not getting a pivot, and the possibility that AI destroys humanity (or at least the stock market). Let’s dive in… 1) Nvidia Earnings Good – Guidance Great ($NVDA) Graphics … Read more
This post originally appeared on May 23, 2023. Introduction: For those of you who don’t follow the daily hyperventilating financial press, the big news during the last few weeks has been the potential debt default by the US government that will roil financial markets, make international trade uncertain, and cause a worldwide recession or worse. … Read more
