As a reminder, I’m using the new shorter format here. I think the previous 9-10 page commentary was helpful when I started writing it every month, but is no longer serving us well. The CPI report does matter, but it’s not driving markets like it did in ’22, ’23, and ’24. In addition, the economy … Read more
As before, I also think the previous 9-10 page commentary was helpful when I started writing it every month, but is no longer serving us well. The CPI report does matter, but it’s not driving markets like it did in ’22, ’23, and ’24. In addition, the economy doesn’t change completely from month to month … Read more
I’m currently on a train which is why today’s CPI report is late. I also think the previous 9-10 page commentary was helpful when I started writing it every month, but is no longer serving us well. The CPI report does matter, but it’s not driving markets like it did in ’22, ’23, and ’24. … Read more
As noted earlier, there won’t be a long 10 page CPI analysis this month. Your bullet points: – CPI of 3.3% was below the 3.4% expected and far above last month’s 2.4%. – Core CPI of 2.6% was below the 2.7% expected and above last month’s 2.5%. – All items CPI was up 0.9% m/m … Read more
Hi All, Due to travel plans and this month’s CPI report being moved to Friday, I will not be in a position to do the full CPI report writeup today. I’ll be able to read the report and relay to you anything different from expectations or that affects the portfolio, but the usual 10 page … Read more
Is the Strait of Hormuz closed? There have been rumors of ships on fire and Iranian success in adding mines. Some of these rumors were lies and later became true, but as long as captains and ship owners think there’s danger, then the Strait is effectively closed. We saw intra-day oil price moves of 20% … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.4% for the last year. That’s flat compared to last month and consistent with expectations. The monthly change was 0.3% also consistent with the estimate. The Core CPI which excludes food and energy was up 2.5%, flat with … Read more
