5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Intel “Incinerated” Nothing Issue
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CPI
5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Dovish CPI Issue
Quick announcement: I’m off and working from new locations for another year. I’ll be in Antigua, Guatemala for the next few weeks. While I’m here, I’m open to a small number of in-person conversations. If you’re based locally, or know someone here you think it would be worthwhile for me to meet, feel free to … Read more
June CPI is 3.5%
As a reminder, I’m using the new shorter format here. I think the previous 9-10 page commentary was helpful when I started writing it every month, but is no longer serving us well. The CPI report does matter, but it’s not driving markets like it did in ’22, ’23, and ’24. In addition, the economy … Read more
5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Why is Bitcoin Down Issue
The CPI rose again and cracked 4%. Energy is still expensive, but you already knew that. The big issue is Powell never got inflation under control. People panicked that Warsh would cut. He can’t and at this point, there’s nothing the Fed can do (something I’ve been saying for the past two years). Bitcoin has … Read more
June – CPI Update
As before, I also think the previous 9-10 page commentary was helpful when I started writing it every month, but is no longer serving us well. The CPI report does matter, but it’s not driving markets like it did in ’22, ’23, and ’24. In addition, the economy doesn’t change completely from month to month … Read more
5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Warsh Fed Issue
Kevin Warsh gets the big chair and the most glamorous job in finance. After months of reporters panicking about the loss of Fed independence (something that never existed), Warsh takes over with no room to cut rates. I said in the summer of ’24 that Powell shouldn’t cut. I stand by that assertion. eBay rejected … Read more
CPI Update
I’m currently on a train which is why today’s CPI report is late. I also think the previous 9-10 page commentary was helpful when I started writing it every month, but is no longer serving us well. The CPI report does matter, but it’s not driving markets like it did in ’22, ’23, and ’24. … Read more
CPI Bullet Points
As noted earlier, there won’t be a long 10 page CPI analysis this month. Your bullet points: – CPI of 3.3% was below the 3.4% expected and far above last month’s 2.4%. – Core CPI of 2.6% was below the 2.7% expected and above last month’s 2.5%. – All items CPI was up 0.9% m/m … Read more
CPI Report Will be Delayed
Hi All, Due to travel plans and this month’s CPI report being moved to Friday, I will not be in a position to do the full CPI report writeup today. I’ll be able to read the report and relay to you anything different from expectations or that affects the portfolio, but the usual 10 page … Read more
The Fed Holds
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