Questioning the “Bonds are Cheap” Narrative in Pictures

Introduction: We’ve noted in the past that many market participants are eagerly waiting for the “Fed pivot”; the time when they expect the Federal Reserve will reassure investors that it’s done raising rates and can get back to more of the fun zero-interest rate combined with trillions of dollars of quantitative easing.  Of course that … Read more

We Were Very Close to a Disaster Yesterday – Here’s Why:

Introduction: Tuesday evening, futures markets traded down on news that Apple was seeing lower than expected demand for the new iPhone.  On Wednesday, the markets rallied with the S&P 500 up 2.0% and the NASDAQ up 2.1%.  The reason was the Bank of England announced they would buy long-dated UK treasury securities.  The BoE made … Read more

Another Big Fed Rate Hike

As “expected” the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by another 75 basis points (.75%) today.  We put “expected” in quotation marks because when we started writing about inflation ten months ago, the big Wall Street firms thought we’d get a total of 75 basis points of rate hikes for all of 2022.  We … Read more

Inflation Comes in Hot Again – and Still Understated – 8.3%

The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) just came in at 8.3% (prices up .1% from last month).  Market watchers were expecting a CPI of 8.1% and prices down .1% from July.  Whether the report showed 8.1% or 8.3%, it’s a huge number.  To give you a sense of how bad 8% inflation is, at that … Read more

S&P Global Market Intelligence – The Future of Regulatory Compliance

Hi All, I’ll be presenting on a panel at this week’s S&P Global Conference called “The Future of Regulatory Compliance”.  We’ll be talking about regulations for cryptocurrencies.  My fellow panelists work for large firms and want the US to have a regulatory framework so their firms know what they can and can’t do.  They also … Read more