Dollar Euro Parity vs Food and Gasoline

Last week, we put out a piece explaining that foreign exchange traders see the US dollar as being strong and that American consumers are experiencing higher prices (meaning a weaker dollar).  Today, the Wall Street Journal published a piece titled “Surging Dollar Raises Possibility of Parity With Euro” explaining that the dollar is strengthening against … Read more

Investors Worried About a Recession That’s Already Here and the Fed Has No Good Options

An article about poor earnings reports from retail companies in today’s Wall Street Journal noted, “The results are prompting Wall Street to wrestle anew with the idea that the global economy could be headed for a recession.”  We warned about stagflation in February.  We said clearly in May that stagflation is here.  And we most … Read more

We’re Getting Questions About the Market Short

Yesterday, we got the same question from an existing client and a prospective client.  They both wanted to know if we were taking off our market short.  We’ve been publicly short the S&P 500 (ticker: SPY) and the NASDAQ (ticker: QQQ) since the first week of January.  It’s been our most profitable position this year … Read more

New CPI – Now With More Nonsense

Overview: Today the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 8.3%.  This is above expectations of 8.1% and below last month’s 8.5%.  Let’s discuss what this means. First, as we pointed out in this post, the CPI doesn’t reflect objective reality.  It’s a number made up by the government … Read more

Is the US Dollar Going Up in Value or Down?

Introduction: We’ve been writing about inflation and the destruction of value in the US Dollar since November last year.  However, when we talk to other market professionals, they comment on the strength of the Dollar.  How is this possible?  Can we have a strong Dollar and a weak Dollar at the same time?  Who’s right … Read more

Fed Raises by 50bp – Largest Increase in over 20 Years

Today, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50bp (half a percentage point), the largest increase since 2000.  They also laid out plans to start slowly unwinding the enormous $9 trillion balance sheet the institution is carrying.  We first highlighted the danger that understated and rising inflation posed back in November while the Fed was … Read more