TACO is an Ineffective Lens
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Oil
5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Mines in the Strait Issue
Is the Strait of Hormuz closed? There have been rumors of ships on fire and Iranian success in adding mines. Some of these rumors were lies and later became true, but as long as captains and ship owners think there’s danger, then the Strait is effectively closed. We saw intra-day oil price moves of 20% … Read more
5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Many Ayatollahs Issue
The US and Israel are knocking out Ayatollahs as fast as Iran can appoint them. Did they kill the entire 88-member council that appoints the next one? We don’t know which explains why DKI didn’t make changes to the portfolio this week despite high market volatility. Our long-term thesis explaining why we own Bitcoin, gold, … Read more
Post Hoc Analysis
As before, anything I write regarding the situation in Iran is based on what I believe to be true right now. None of us know how accurate any individual report is. Every party involved has an incentive to shape opinions regardless of what’s really happening on the ground. Again, I’ve seen videos claiming to show … Read more
Iran and the Portfolio
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Iran
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5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The CPI is “Estimated” Issue
We got an estimated CPI that shows inflation has slowed. The market loved seeing that, but I still think inflation is too high. Plus, do any of you think the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated a low CPI? Me either. Oil prices continue to fall. Efforts to embargo Russian oil have failed. DKI predicted this … Read more
Geopolitics
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Chinese Stimulus Update
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Monthly Depth Report – March 2024 – The “Store of Value” Debate
With inflation continuing to erode the purchasing power of the dollar and both gold and Bitcoin hitting all-time highs this month, there’s been increasing interest in the concept of what constitutes a store of value. Michael Gayed has asserted that a store of value can’t have tail risk. That means if an asset can have … Read more
