Month: August 2022
Who’s Going to Pay for the Losses at the Fed?
We’ve pointed out more times than we can count that the Federal Reserve currently has around $9 trillion dollars of securities on its balance sheet. This includes trillions of dollars of mortgage securities its not allowed to own. The main reason that inflation has been so high this year has been the Fed’s increase of … Read more
Guest Post – Idiots and Inflation
We’ve featured the work of Laks Ganapathi previously. She’s smart, interesting, and subversive. You enter a conversation with her expecting one outcome, and ten minutes later, realize she’s taken a completely different approach to the subject and has detailed reasons for her unexpected conclusion. I was about to write a piece on the connection between … Read more
I Know That You Know That I Know That You Don’t Know What You’re Doing
The title is intentionally confusing. Introduction: One of the most challenging parts of trying to evaluate the stock market is the second-order game of figuring out what everyone else is expecting. I’ve seen uncertain situations where we got the “bad” outcome and the stock went up on resolution of the uncertainty (even if it was … Read more
The Reason That “Bad” Economic News is “Good” for the Market
Introduction: At various times, there have been situations where economic news that was better than expected led to an immediate market decline, and where negative or disappointing economic news led to the market rising. This effect has been particularly pronounced this year. Ever wonder who’s benefiting from a bad economy and want to know what’s … Read more
Stocks Rise on CPI of “Only” 8.5%
Introduction: Today’s inflation report came in at 8.5% which was slightly below the 8.7% that the market expected. The thinking is that now that inflation has come down from the 9.1% from last month and was below the expected number, we’re closer to Federal Reserve rate cuts and that’s why the market was up today. … Read more
Russia/Ukraine and the Implications for our Relationship with Adversaries
Russia/Ukraine and the Implications for Our Relationship With Adversaries (including China). I’m speaking with three members of the Deep Knowledge Investing Board of Advisors: • Dr. John Lenczowski (President Reagan’s National Security Advisor on the Soviet Union and Founder of the Institute for World Politics) • Lt. Colonel (Ret) Jason Galui (West Point economics professor, … Read more
