The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) just came in at 8.3% (prices up .1% from last month). Market watchers were expecting a CPI of 8.1% and prices down .1% from July. Whether the report showed 8.1% or 8.3%, it’s a huge number. To give you a sense of how bad 8% inflation is, at that … Read more
The title is intentionally confusing. Introduction: One of the most challenging parts of trying to evaluate the stock market is the second-order game of figuring out what everyone else is expecting. I’ve seen uncertain situations where we got the “bad” outcome and the stock went up on resolution of the uncertainty (even if it was … Read more
Introduction: Today’s inflation report came in at 8.5% which was slightly below the 8.7% that the market expected. The thinking is that now that inflation has come down from the 9.1% from last month and was below the expected number, we’re closer to Federal Reserve rate cuts and that’s why the market was up today. … Read more
Today, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced 2Q GDP that was down .9%. It’s not a big number, but it is a negative one, and that, combined with negative GDP growth in the first quarter means the US is officially in a recession. Washington D.C. politicians, political operatives, media allies, and the White … Read more
Last month, the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by 75 basis points (.75%) which was the largest rate increase in nearly three decades. Today, they did it again and raised another 75 basis points. The market was already up on Google and Microsoft results that while below estimates, weren’t as bad as feared. … Read more
‘When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.’ ‘The question is,’ said Alice, ‘whether you can make words mean so many different things.’ ‘The question is,’ said Humpty Dumpty, ‘which is to be master—that’s all.’ Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland is one of … Read more
Today’s announcement that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit 9.1% was so severe that there is now credible speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise the fed funds rate by 1.00% instead of the planned .75% which would still represent a huge increase. We warned that inflation was large, understated, a huge problem, and not … Read more
Paul Gray of IronHold Capital and Gary Brode of Deep Knowledge Investing discuss the US Dollar, Russian Sanctions, Inflation, and the Stock Market.
Overview: The stock market, market analysts, and all of us here at Deep Knowledge Investing have been closely watching Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve for signs regarding future interest rate hikes. After keeping rates at zero and calling inflation “transitory” for far too long, he now seems focused on aggressively increasing interest rates to … Read more
Overview: Today, the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by 75bp (.75%). It’s the largest increase in almost 30 years, and the big move was due to runaway inflation that the Fed had previously termed “transitory”. We’ve been on record for months saying that inflation is understated by approximately 100%, is not transitory, and … Read more
