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Inflation Comes in Hot Again – and Still Understated – 8.3%

The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) just came in at 8.3% (prices up .1% from last month).  Market watchers were expecting a CPI of 8.1% and prices down .1% from July.  Whether the report showed 8.1% or 8.3%, it’s a huge number.  To give you a sense of how bad 8% inflation is, at that … Read more

I Know That You Know That I Know That You Don’t Know What You’re Doing

The title is intentionally confusing. Introduction: One of the most challenging parts of trying to evaluate the stock market is the second-order game of figuring out what everyone else is expecting.  I’ve seen uncertain situations where we got the “bad” outcome and the stock went up on resolution of the uncertainty (even if it was … Read more

Stocks Rise on CPI of “Only” 8.5%

Introduction: Today’s inflation report came in at 8.5% which was slightly below the 8.7% that the market expected.  The thinking is that now that inflation has come down from the 9.1% from last month and was below the expected number, we’re closer to Federal Reserve rate cuts and that’s why the market was up today.  … Read more

Officially a Recession

Today, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced 2Q GDP that was down .9%.  It’s not a big number, but it is a negative one, and that, combined with negative GDP growth in the first quarter means the US is officially in a recession.  Washington D.C. politicians, political operatives, media allies, and the White … Read more

Bullet Points on Another Big 75 Basis Point Rate Hike

Last month, the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by 75 basis points (.75%) which was the largest rate increase in nearly three decades.  Today, they did it again and raised another 75 basis points.  The market was already up on Google and Microsoft results that while below estimates, weren’t as bad as feared.  … Read more

Walmart vs The White House

‘When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.’ ‘The question is,’ said Alice, ‘whether you can make words mean so many different things.’ ‘The question is,’ said Humpty Dumpty, ‘which is to be master—that’s all.’ Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland is one of … Read more

CPI Hits 9.1% and Somehow People Are Still Surprised

Today’s announcement that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit 9.1% was so severe that there is now credible speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise the fed funds rate by 1.00% instead of the planned .75% which would still represent a huge increase.  We warned that inflation was large, understated, a huge problem, and not … Read more

At Least They’re Not Saying “Transitory” Anymore

Overview: Today, the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by 75bp (.75%).  It’s the largest increase in almost 30 years, and the big move was due to runaway inflation that the Fed had previously termed “transitory”.  We’ve been on record for months saying that inflation is understated by approximately 100%, is not transitory, and … Read more

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