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Weekly Points – December 1st, 2023 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Government and Consumer Big Spending Issue

It was a big week for spending. The consumer bought huge amounts of holiday gifts. (For my fellow Michiganders, the consumer did get much on sale because they require big savings.) The government bought a big positive revised GDP print. And Sheldon Adelson’s widow, Miriam, bought most of a basketball team. If you don’t want … Read more

Why Haven’t We Had a Recession Yet?

This piece was originally published on November 27th, 2023. Overview: Market pundits have been spending the last two years predicting recessions. The typical setup right now is they project it will happen in the next 2-3 quarters. Every week, I see pundits projecting a recession in 1H 2024. Many of them are the same people … Read more

Webinar with Mish Shedlock Now Available

Gary Brode talks with Deep Knowledge Investing Board of Advisors member, Mish Shedlock. We discuss: – Predictions for Federal Reserve Rate Hikes – Whether the US in recession right now – A potential BRICS competitor to the dollar as the world’s reserve currency – The real estate market and why commercial and residential are heading … Read more

Is the VIX Lying to Us?

This is an excerpt from the DKI July letter: The VIX is an index that measures market expectations for volatility in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. The index tends to have a skew in it because investors are much more concerned about downwards volatility than upwards volatility. As a result, we’ll typically … Read more

Questioning the “Bonds are Cheap” Narrative in Pictures

Introduction: We’ve noted in the past that many market participants are eagerly waiting for the “Fed pivot”; the time when they expect the Federal Reserve will reassure investors that it’s done raising rates and can get back to more of the fun zero-interest rate combined with trillions of dollars of quantitative easing.  Of course that … Read more

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