recession

Questioning the “Bonds are Cheap” Narrative in Pictures

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Introduction: We’ve noted in the past that many market participants are eagerly waiting for the “Fed pivot”; the time when they expect the Federal Reserve will reassure investors that it’s done raising rates and can get back to more of the fun zero-interest rate combined with trillions of dollars of quantitative easing.  Of course that … Read more

Who’s Going to Pay for the Losses at the Fed?

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We’ve pointed out more times than we can count that the Federal Reserve currently has around $9 trillion dollars of securities on its balance sheet.  This includes trillions of dollars of mortgage securities its not allowed to own.  The main reason that inflation has been so high this year has been the Fed’s increase of … Read more

We Called Stagflation a Month Ago – The Idea Seems to be Catching on Now

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Preparing for Recession/Stagflation: In November, we prepared subscribers for coming inflation and noted that the current CPI number was not accurate.  We wrote: “Those huge increases in energy, housing, and food prices indicate that the relatively benign CPI number is underestimating the issue.”  In February, we openly said that the recent GDP number of 6.9 … Read more