The market is down this morning on a worse than expected 1Q GDP estimate. GDP was reported at -0.3% which was below expectations of -0.2%. In addition, the Personal Consumption Expenditures figure came in 0.1% above expectations. While the market had a strong reaction, I don’t think this news is significant. 1) The stagflation story … Read more
It was a big week for spending. The consumer bought huge amounts of holiday gifts. (For my fellow Michiganders, the consumer did get much on sale because they require big savings.) The government bought a big positive revised GDP print. And Sheldon Adelson’s widow, Miriam, bought most of a basketball team. If you don’t want … Read more
This piece was originally published on November 27th, 2023. Overview: Market pundits have been spending the last two years predicting recessions. The typical setup right now is they project it will happen in the next 2-3 quarters. Every week, I see pundits projecting a recession in 1H 2024. Many of them are the same people … Read more
Gary Brode talks with Deep Knowledge Investing Board of Advisors member, Mish Shedlock. We discuss: – Predictions for Federal Reserve Rate Hikes – Whether the US in recession right now – A potential BRICS competitor to the dollar as the world’s reserve currency – The real estate market and why commercial and residential are heading … Read more
This is an excerpt from the DKI July letter: The VIX is an index that measures market expectations for volatility in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. The index tends to have a skew in it because investors are much more concerned about downwards volatility than upwards volatility. As a result, we’ll typically … Read more
Introduction: We’ve noted in the past that many market participants are eagerly waiting for the “Fed pivot”; the time when they expect the Federal Reserve will reassure investors that it’s done raising rates and can get back to more of the fun zero-interest rate combined with trillions of dollars of quantitative easing. Of course that … Read more
