Fed Raises by 50bp – Largest Increase in over 20 Years

Today, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50bp (half a percentage point), the largest increase since 2000.  They also laid out plans to start slowly unwinding the enormous $9 trillion balance sheet the institution is carrying.  We first highlighted the danger that understated and rising inflation posed back in November while the Fed was … Read more

The Depth Report – The New Inflation Number is Huge – And is Understated

Overview: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics just announced the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8.5%, the highest number in just over 40 years.  Some government officials are pointing to the core number excluding food and energy (for people who don’t use either?) of “just” 6.5% which is the highest number in just under … Read more

We Called Stagflation a Month Ago – The Idea Seems to be Catching on Now

Preparing for Recession/Stagflation: In November, we prepared subscribers for coming inflation and noted that the current CPI number was not accurate.  We wrote: “Those huge increases in energy, housing, and food prices indicate that the relatively benign CPI number is underestimating the issue.”  In February, we openly said that the recent GDP number of 6.9 … Read more