#interestrates
Does Anyone Do Their Job – It’s 2008 All Over Again
This post originally appeared on March 13, 2023 Introduction: Over the past few days, we’ve seen the failure of Silicon Valley Bank ($SIVB) and Signature Bank ($SBNY) as well as a government decision to bail out the deposit accounts with more than $250K. That’s in excess of FDIC regulations and was described by officials as … Read more
Higher for Longer – Plus Faster
This post originally appeared on March 7, 2023 This morning Jerome Powell spoke in front of Congress, and added to his usual talking points that the Federal Reserve would keep rates higher for longer. Today, noting the strong economic growth and low unemployment, Powell added that the Fed might accelerate rate increases. People have been … Read more
Bifurcated Inflation – What if Everyone is Wrong – Part II
This post originally appeared on February 24, 2023 Introduction: This is Part II of a multi-part piece. Part I is available here. There is a lot of talk on FinTwit (financial Twitter) that the Federal Reserve has access to more data than we do. The implication is that because they have all of this information, … Read more
Japan – Has the Forecast Changed
This post originally appeared on February 16, 2023 Mark Rossano and I predicted the problems at the Bank of Japan two months before they capitulated and raised rates. The New York Alternative Investment Roundtable hosted us today to see what we thought has changed since then. You can see the whole video here: NYAIR … Read more