Government Statistics Are Lies

All year, the market has been trading off of small differences between macro economic statistics and expectations.  One theme we’ve emphasized in 2022 is that government statistics do not represent reality; but rather, are generated by government employees to advance a specific narrative.  This happens under both Republican and Democratic administrations as no one wants … Read more

A Market Run By Press Conferences

Introduction: We’ve noted two related market trends over the past few months.  The first is bad economic news is good for the market.  That’s because the Fed is more likely to slow rate hikes into a weaker economy.  Click the link for a more detailed description.  The second is the market has been trading based … Read more

Bullet Points on Another Big 75 Basis Point Rate Hike

Last month, the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by 75 basis points (.75%) which was the largest rate increase in nearly three decades.  Today, they did it again and raised another 75 basis points.  The market was already up on Google and Microsoft results that while below estimates, weren’t as bad as feared.  … Read more

All the news is bad. Why do the markets keep going up?

A discussion between Gary Brode of Deep Knowledge Investing and Raji Khabbaz of ArcanX covering: All the news is bad. Why do the markets keep going up? Is the Russian response to sanctions effective and what does it mean for the dollar in the future? What economic indicators are we watching now? What are we … Read more