5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Ugly Ferrari Issue
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#gdp
The Fed, GDP, and Tariffs
The Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve concluded its July meeting and to the surprise of no one, left interest rates unchanged. I think it was the right move. The economy seems to be doing well-enough and inflation remains above the 2% target (which I continue to insist is 2% too high). DKI has been outspoken … Read more
Weekly Points – May 2nd, 2025 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Tariffs Giveth and Taketh Away Issue
We lead off with the news that 1Q GDP came in both negative and below expectations. That, combined with a higher-than-expected inflation number, had investors worried about stagflation again. DKI thinks the data is less significant that some others do. President Trump’s tariffs provide the US with a big win and a potential loss (depending … Read more
GDP Meh
The market is down this morning on a worse than expected 1Q GDP estimate. GDP was reported at -0.3% which was below expectations of -0.2%. In addition, the Personal Consumption Expenditures figure came in 0.1% above expectations. While the market had a strong reaction, I don’t think this news is significant. 1) The stagflation story … Read more
Weekly Points – February 28th, 2025 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Public Recession Issue
Nvidia $NVDA has a great quarter, but the stock was priced for perfection. Still, Jensen Huang had some interesting comments on DeepSeek. There are rumors that Microsoft $MSFT is cancelling data center leases…but the big tech firms all just confirmed higher AI spending for 2025. The January PCE falls, but it won’t be enough to … Read more
Weekly Points – November 1st, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Government is Misleading You Issue
All summer and fall, we saw market analysts claim the Fed won the war on inflation. This week, the Core PCE remained stubbornly high. Some claim we’re heading for stagflation. We should pay attention to that warning. 3Q GDP came in below last quarter. Even worse, this economic “growth” is really value-destroying government spending pushing … Read more
Weekly Points – August 2nd, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The #Trump #Bitcoin Issue
President Trump talks about Bitcoin and he and some other politicians call for a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Plus, we have another week of tech stock obliteration. It’s not that earnings were bad; but rather, that expectations and valuations were so high. Intel $INTC is the exception. Their earnings report was bad. We also have lots … Read more
Weekly Points – July 26th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Earnings and Inflation Issue
We hit earnings season and with the Magnificent 7 priced for perfection, it was going to take “perfect” earnings reports to keep the market from falling. $GOOG and $TSLA showed some weakness and for the second straight week, tech leads the stock market lower. Coursera $COUR beats earnings and positions itself as an AI play … Read more
June PCE of 2.6% – Slightly Above Expectations
This morning, we got the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. This is the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve. The PCE was up 0.1% vs last month and 2.5% vs last year. The monthly number accelerated by 0.1% and the yearly declined by 0.1%; both very small changes in trend. The 2.5% annual … Read more
Macro Commentary and an Unsurprising Conclusion
DKI published a white paper in November of 2021 warning that inflation was a big and non-transitory problem. By May or June of 2022, most of the big macro strategists were already calling for Federal Reserve rate cuts despite continued high inflation. I’ve spent the past two plus years saying rate cuts would eventually come, … Read more
