All summer and fall, we saw market analysts claim the Fed won the war on inflation. This week, the Core PCE remained stubbornly high. Some claim we’re heading for stagflation. We should pay attention to that warning. 3Q GDP came in below last quarter. Even worse, this economic “growth” is really value-destroying government spending pushing … Read more
President Trump talks about Bitcoin and he and some other politicians call for a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Plus, we have another week of tech stock obliteration. It’s not that earnings were bad; but rather, that expectations and valuations were so high. Intel $INTC is the exception. Their earnings report was bad. We also have lots … Read more
We hit earnings season and with the Magnificent 7 priced for perfection, it was going to take “perfect” earnings reports to keep the market from falling. $GOOG and $TSLA showed some weakness and for the second straight week, tech leads the stock market lower. Coursera $COUR beats earnings and positions itself as an AI play … Read more
This morning, we got the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. This is the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve. The PCE was up 0.1% vs last month and 2.5% vs last year. The monthly number accelerated by 0.1% and the yearly declined by 0.1%; both very small changes in trend. The 2.5% annual … Read more
DKI published a white paper in November of 2021 warning that inflation was a big and non-transitory problem. By May or June of 2022, most of the big macro strategists were already calling for Federal Reserve rate cuts despite continued high inflation. I’ve spent the past two plus years saying rate cuts would eventually come, … Read more
This was a fascinating week featuring political shifts, increased market volatility, and a week-long drop in the stock prices of the mega-cap tech leaders that have been supporting the equity market indexes the past couple of years. This week, we’re focused on higher retail sales and wondering if anything will slow the consumer. Higher jobless … Read more
Ok – it’s a bit of a clickbait title. I confess. The economic news this week wasn’t great, but we’re not actually at doomsday. I’ve been making the point that we’re in a bifurcated economy where a few people doing extremely well pulls up the overall statistics while hiding the fact that most of the … Read more
Comments by a Fed Governor started a debate this week on the future of rate HIKES. That was followed by a PCE report that had both the hawks and doves declaring victory. The underlying data isn’t getting better and the government is still engaging in massive stimulus so DKI’s conclusions will not surprise you. 1Q … Read more
This week, we released the DKI report on AuthID in public and explain the use cases for biometric security. The stock has some near-term catalysts, and the full report is available on the DKI website. DKI Intern, Andrew Brown, brings up the complicated issue of whether the government should interfere in free markets to “help” … Read more
The Federal Reserve completed its May meeting and kept rates unchanged. So, why did the market rise? The Bank of Japan intervened to save the yen twice to no effect before getting bailed out by the Fed taper and a weak employment report. Irresponsible people in Washington are saying insane things. DKI’s solution: Everybody stop … Read more
