This week presents more evidence that a weak private market economy and inflation are taking an increased toll on the American consumer. Luxury sales are falling with consumers seeking out used and discounted items. While companies like $MSFT, $GOOG, and $AMZN buy more $NVDA chips to power AI datacenters, consumers balk at buying AI-powered electronics … Read more
The polls have been inaccurate for the past three US Presidential elections. Knowing that, DKI was watching Bitcoin, the prediction markets, and a few other select stocks and economic markers to see that a Trump landslide was coming long before the network announcers could do so. Could we get a sound money advocate as Federal … Read more
Most of this week’s 5 Things relates to government mismanagement of the economy. We draw two conclusions. First, the government should involve itself in less of the economy. Second, we should have called this “The Government is Mismanaging Things Edition”. One month after DKI told you the Fed cut rates too soon, the Core CPI … Read more
Years ago, President Trump talked about a change in tax rates that he described as “big league”. It was misinterpreted as “bigly” and a new word entered the lexicon. Last week, the Fed pivoted and cut the fed funds rate. This cut was more than two years after Fed doves and asset gatherers started begging … Read more
The long-awaited pivot is here. The Federal Reserve is going to cut the fed funds rate this week. Asset gatherers celebrate the opportunity to blow up another asset bubble. The rest of the country should prepare for more misery-causing inflation. Russia talks about limiting exports of uranium during a multi-year supply shortage. Multiple people pinged … Read more
One of the best experiences I’ve had in my investment career was being partner and co-portfolio manager with Raji Khabbaz. He’s a fantastic stock-picker and the two of us spent the better part of a decade discussing and debating investment ideas. Early in 2020, we spent a lot of time talking about Covid, trying to … Read more
At the beginning of the week, we heard the hyperbolic prediction that the Nvidia ($NVDA) earnings report was the most important of all time. That’s ridiculous, and given the reaction of stock markets worldwide, may actually be true. The Fed disappoints investors again and despite Powell saying “higher for longer” for almost two years, somehow … Read more
The Federal Reserve surprised the market by leaving the fed funds rate unchanged and indicating its not inclined to lower at the next meeting in March. The market was disappointed, but a better-than-expected manufacturing index with higher-than-expected pricing plus a seemingly hot labor market support the Fed’s decision. There was huge growth in jobs, but … Read more
