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Notes from the Powell Press Conference

Very little that’s new and of interest from Powell’s press conference. The highlights: – Talked about starting to taper quantitative tightening (QT). Said the plan is to get to the same level, but more slowly. – Lots of talk about the strong employment situation. Regular DKI readers know most new jobs are in government. The … Read more

Weekly Points – March 15th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Stagflation and Doom Issue

This wasn’t a good week for the “pivot” people and asset gatherers who have been begging the Federal Reserve for lower rates. We got a higher-than-expected CPI and PPI. Making things worse, the short-term monthly numbers have started to accelerate meaning the disinflation story might be dead for now. Retail sales and manufacturing numbers were … Read more

Weekly Points – March 8th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Powell Just Hit the Panic Button Issue

This week, Jerome Powell spoke to Congress and was more dovish than he’s been in years. He’s gone from channeling former Fed Chairman, Volker, who crushed inflation with interest rates approaching 20% to sounding like Volker’s predecessor, Arthur Burns, who reduced interest rates before getting inflation under control. We saw weaker than expected job reports, … Read more

January PCE of 2.4% is Consistent with Expectations

This morning, we got the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. This is the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve. The PCE was up .3% vs last month and 2.4% vs last year. The Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, was up .4% vs last month and 2.8% vs last year. All of … Read more

Weekly Points – February 23rd, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The All Nvidia All the Time Issue

At the beginning of the week, we heard the hyperbolic prediction that the Nvidia ($NVDA) earnings report was the most important of all time. That’s ridiculous, and given the reaction of stock markets worldwide, may actually be true. The Fed disappoints investors again and despite Powell saying “higher for longer” for almost two years, somehow … Read more

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