The Federal Reserve concluded its January meeting by deciding to keep the fed funds rate unchanged. There have been times in the last couple of months where the market put a 60% – 70% probability of a January rate cut. DKI has insisted all along that while we’ve hit the terminal rate (the highest fed … Read more
Every week in January, we’ve been pointing out the inconsistencies we see in macro-economic data. The trend becomes even more pronounced this week with contradictory insight on the economy being provided by the GDP report, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, and the purchasing manager’s index. The results are so confusing that commentary by S&P Global … Read more
The Disinflation/Deflation Issue We got lots of macro news this week featuring lower levels of inflation (disinflation) and in some cases, lower prices (deflation). Long-term, DKI continues to believe that excessive Congressional spending and the ensuing currency creation (dollar printing) will lead to long-term inflation and long-term higher interest rates. For now, there is increasing … Read more
The Close the * Door Issue: We saw the most entertaining press conference by a Federal Reserve Chairman in decades. Jerome Powell “surprised” Wall Street by saying exactly the same thing he’s been saying for almost two years, then got caught on a hot mike wanting to shut the door on badly-behaved protesters. A Treasury … Read more
