We told you last night that Japan was throwing in the towel on its (approximately) zero interest rates and was raising rates to defend the yen. I read today that earlier this month, Morgan Stanley had predicted that Japan would hold the line on its debt through all of 2023. While it’s hard to make predictions in the market a year out, to us, this one seemed obvious:
October 22, 2022: Mark Rossano and me talking to the NY Alternative Investment Roundtable about the inevitability of a Japanese bond default (or at least a stealth default where the yen declines so much that Japan pays their debts in worthless yen): https://twitter.com/NYHedgeFunds/status/1583639483009748992
November 1, 2022: Mark Rossano and me talking on OpenExchange TV about the same thing: https://www.openexchange.tv/pro-insights/what-does-sovereign-debt-default-mean
October 26th, 2022: Explaining to DKI subscribers on this blog the coming Japanese sovereign debt default: https://deepknowledgeinvesting.com/sovereign-debt-defaults-japan-vs-the-bond-vigilantes-part-i/
October 27th, 2022: More detail on Japan vs the Bond Vigilantes: https://deepknowledgeinvesting.com/sovereign-debt-defaults-japan-vs-the-bond-vigilantes-part-ii/
November 24, 2022: Interviewed by Michael Gayed of the LeadLag Report on “The Japan Default Looms”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djrG2eaLC-g
And because we like to bring a sense of humor to things, I posted this to Twitter 9 days ago:
