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How to Use the Current Recommendations Page

How to Use the Current Recommendations Page

 

One of my favorite parts of running Deep Knowledge Investing is the interactions I have with our subscribers. I tend to get thoughtful questions that serve as a guide for how I can better communicate investment ideas to the community here. A new subscriber had some questions about the Current Recommendations page that made me think it would be a good idea to write a short guide on how I think about investing and how to use this page.

 

It’s also important to note that there are many excellent ways to invest. The key thing is to have a plan for how you’ll handle stock price movements. For example, if you’re a long-term investor with a positive thesis on one of your favorite names, it’s probably a mistake to sell it if the stock goes up 10%. However, for a day trader who has made 5% in a stock, selling may be a great idea.

 

A few principles that will help you understand how I think about investing and how to best use DKI recommendations:

 

Skin in the Game:  If it’s on the Current Recommendations (CR) page, I own it in my personal account. If it’s good enough for DKI subscribers, then it better be good enough for me. If my opinion on a stock changes, or if I sell a position, I post it to the blog here immediately.

 

Historical Purchase Prices:  Many people develop an emotional attachment to their historical purchase price and will wait hopefully for a stock that’s down to return to their prior purchase price. That kind of attachment to the past tends to lead to poor investment decisions. Anything I own, I own at the current stock price. The past doesn’t matter. Figuring out what’s going to happen in the future is a better use of our time and energy. The obvious exception is tax planning. If you have large profits in a stock you’ve owned for 358 days, you might consider holding onto it for another week to get better tax treatment. In general, it’s best not to have any attachment to your initial purchase price.

 

When to Sell:  There are three things that cause me to sell a position:

  • If a stock reaches my target price.
  • If something makes me think my investment thesis is incorrect.
  • If it’s an event-driven situation and the event has passed.

 

Timeframe:  I tend to think about most investments in a 2-5 year timeframe. I want to own positions for large returns over multiple years and tend not to trade my portfolio often. If you’re new here and something is on the CR page, it’s likely that I intend to own it for a while. In situations where a stock is approaching my target price, I tend to give advance notice. As an example, DKI recommended HCA in the summer of 2020 below $115. We sold the position just under a year later between $220 and $250. Subscribers were informed when the stock was approaching the target price and knew at what prices I intended to sell shares.

 

Timeframe Part II:  While DKI focuses on long-term investing, there are occasions when we’ll take advantage of shorter-term risk/reward mispricing. In 2023, ENVA declined with the rest of the financial sector when several large banks failed despite not having the kind of bond portfolio duration risk that crashed the banks. We bought call options that returned almost 40% in about two months. Recently, multiple massive financial firms filed for SEC approval of their new proposed Bitcoin exchange traded funds. We immediately increased our allocation to GBTC which rose by almost 40% in a few weeks. We don’t promise these kinds of opportunities will present themselves regularly, but when we see them, we’ll both take advantage of them, and let you know that it’s a shorter-term trade. The TL/DR version is we’re long-term investors and when we’re doing something short-term, we’ll let you know.

 

Hedging:  There are times when we hedge our non-alternative equity exposure. We tend to use short positions in market indexes like SPY and QQQ against some of the stock portfolio. We do not hedge positions in alternatives like gold, silver, or Bitcoin. We do not hedge positions in energy because they’re subject to different risks than most equities.

 

If you find this guide helpful, please extend your gratitude to your fellow DKI subscribers who let me know what they found confusing and what needs more explanation. If you have questions about how to get the most from your subscription, I’m always reachable at IR@DeepKnowledgeInvesting.com.

 

Thanks for subscribing. We’re glad to have you.

 

Information contained in this report is believed by Deep Knowledge Investing (“DKI”) to be accurate and/or derived from sources which it believes to be reliable; however, such information is presented without warranty of any kind, whether express or implied and DKI makes no representation as to the completeness, timeliness or accuracy of the information contained therein or with regard to the results to be obtained from its use.  The provision of the information contained in the Services shall not be deemed to obligate DKI to provide updated or similar information in the future except to the extent it may be required to do so. 

 

The information we provide is publicly available; our reports are neither an offer nor a solicitation to buy or sell securities. All expressions of opinion are precisely that and are subject to change. DKI, affiliates of DKI or its principal or others associated with DKI may have, take or sell positions in securities of companies about which we write. 

 

Our opinions are not advice that investment in a company’s securities is suitable for any particular investor. Each investor should consult with and rely on his or its own investigation, due diligence and the recommendations of investment professionals whom the investor has engaged for that purpose. 

 

In no event shall DKI be liable for any costs, liabilities, losses, expenses (including, but not limited to, attorneys’ fees), damages of any kind, including direct, indirect, punitive, incidental, special or consequential damages, or for any trading losses arising from or attributable to the use of this report. 

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