Yet Another Reason You Shouldn’t Trust Sell-Side Research

Please feel free to check out today’s Twitter thread on sell-side research which touches on predictions for 2023 made here at DKI.  The key point is that big bank economists are predicting a recession while the “analysts” at those same big banks are projecting earnings and revenue growth for the S&P 500 this year.  If … Read more

Government Statistics Are Lies

All year, the market has been trading off of small differences between macro economic statistics and expectations.  One theme we’ve emphasized in 2022 is that government statistics do not represent reality; but rather, are generated by government employees to advance a specific narrative.  This happens under both Republican and Democratic administrations as no one wants … Read more

Japanese Debt – We’re Taking a Victory Lap

We told you last night that Japan was throwing in the towel on its (approximately) zero interest rates and was raising rates to defend the yen.  I read today that earlier this month, Morgan Stanley had predicted that Japan would hold the line on its debt through all of 2023.  While it’s hard to make … Read more

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