CPI of 3.7% was above expectations of 3.6% and above last month’s 3.4%. The monthly change was 0.6% driven by fuel and shelter (again). The monthly increase was in line with expectations and annualizes to 7.4%. Core CPI of 2.6% was above estimates of 2.5% and above last month’s 2.4%. The monthly change of … Read more
I’m heading to Buenos Aires this week followed by a few days in Florence, Italy, and will spend November in Japan. I’m open to a small number of in-person conversations. If you’re based locally, or know someone in those locations you think it would be worthwhile for me to meet, feel free to reach out … Read more
I just arrived in Montevideo, Uruguay. After that, I’ll have a week in Buenos Aires, a week in Florence, and will spend November in Japan. I’m open to a small number of in-person conversations. If you’re based locally, or know someone in those locations you think it would be worthwhile for me to meet, feel … Read more
The Federal Reserve completed its June meeting and the first one with Kevin Warsh as Chairman. The details: – The Fed kept the fed funds rate unchanged. This was the overwhelming consensus expectation. – On the dot plot, nine of 19 Fed officials expect an increase in the fed funds rate later this year. (Warsh … Read more
The CPI rose again and cracked 4%. Energy is still expensive, but you already knew that. The big issue is Powell never got inflation under control. People panicked that Warsh would cut. He can’t and at this point, there’s nothing the Fed can do (something I’ve been saying for the past two years). Bitcoin has … Read more
Kevin Warsh takes the big chair with no room to cut. The stock market yawns and I point out for the nth time that Fed rate cuts don’t lead to lower borrowing rates. The yield on the Japanese Government 30 year is up by even more leading to a reduced incentive for the carry trade. … Read more
Kevin Warsh gets the big chair and the most glamorous job in finance. After months of reporters panicking about the loss of Fed independence (something that never existed), Warsh takes over with no room to cut rates. I said in the summer of ’24 that Powell shouldn’t cut. I stand by that assertion. eBay rejected … Read more
The incredible volatility in gold, silver, and Bitcoin continued for most of this week. We give you a quick update along with links for those of you who want a better understanding of what’s really happening. Anthropic announces that its Claude AI can take over functions currently being handled by expensive monthly software subscriptions. SaaS … Read more
It’s been a volatile few days. Let’s recap: The Federal Reserve: I continue to believe the market is overestimating the impact Fed Chair nominee, Warsh, could have on the economy and the markets. Last week, there was reasonable fear that Warsh would be hawkish (favoring higher interest rates). I’m skeptical of that take, despite … Read more
