#interestrates

Is the VIX Lying to Us?

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This is an excerpt from the DKI July letter: The VIX is an index that measures market expectations for volatility in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. The index tends to have a skew in it because investors are much more concerned about downwards volatility than upwards volatility. As a result, we’ll typically … Read more

Higher for Longer:

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This is an excerpt from the DKI July letter:   Over a year ago, the “pivot people” started calling for the Fed to pivot to lower rates. At the time and for the past year, DKI has said that we were nowhere near a pivot and that we expect the Fed to continue raising. Shortly … Read more

Mixed Economic Data – Still More Rate Hikes:

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This is an excerpt from the DKI July letter:   Last month, we wrote this: DKI has been highlighting inconsistent economic data since last November. However, recent news has put that trend on steroids. The ISM Manufacturing Index and the Purchasing Managers’ Index are both showing contraction/recessionary indicators. Demand for goods is weak. Lumber pricing … Read more

Two Quick Notes on Today’s Trading

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Today, Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell spoke to Congress. In his remarks, Powell made it clear that the Fed is likely to hike rates again this year and that he is committed to reducing inflation to the 2% target. He also reiterated that despite the recent declines in the rate of inflation, it’s not even … Read more

Is Jerome Powell Destroying the Economy?

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Here’s a little Twitter fun from last week. Original piece is here: Is Jerome Powell destroying the economy? For 2 years, DKI has been critical of the Fed for being too slow to raise rates. We also agree with FinTwit stars like @RudyHavenstein, @saifedean, @stackhodler, & @macrojack21 that we should #EndTheFed. But it’s not all … Read more

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