As many of you know, I rented my house out last year and spent the year traveling and working from different places. It was an amazing experience. I engaged more with religion, meditation, art, architecture, and nature more than I do in my “normal” life. The trip was great for my health. I walked, explored, … Read more
The Fed completed its first Warsh-led meeting and promptly spooked the market with a hawkish dot plot. I think that doesn’t matter as inflation is being driven by Congress. Warsh is declining to provide guidance which I view as a positive. All the chatter wasn’t getting us better results and the Fed tends to be … Read more
The Federal Reserve completed its June meeting and the first one with Kevin Warsh as Chairman. The details: – The Fed kept the fed funds rate unchanged. This was the overwhelming consensus expectation. – On the dot plot, nine of 19 Fed officials expect an increase in the fed funds rate later this year. (Warsh … Read more
The CPI rose again and cracked 4%. Energy is still expensive, but you already knew that. The big issue is Powell never got inflation under control. People panicked that Warsh would cut. He can’t and at this point, there’s nothing the Fed can do (something I’ve been saying for the past two years). Bitcoin has … Read more
As before, I also think the previous 9-10 page commentary was helpful when I started writing it every month, but is no longer serving us well. The CPI report does matter, but it’s not driving markets like it did in ’22, ’23, and ’24. In addition, the economy doesn’t change completely from month to month … Read more
I got a great question from “M” this morning. Copying his question and my reply here. Let me know what you think at IR@DeepKnowledgeInvesting.com or feel free to post your thoughts in the comments to this piece. From “M” First, you’re really putting out great stuff, and obviously, the input behind it is extensive and … Read more
Nvidia startles the CPU designers with plans to start selling Windows PCs with Spark CPUs and RTX GPUs. They’re aimed at high-end content creators and AI users. There may be some compatibility issues with the ARM-based processors, but it’s a positive to see more AI computing pushed to personal devices with fewer privacy issues. Uber … Read more
Uber is trying to buy Delivery Hero. It would give Uber greater market access in Asia and the Middle East. PCE showed continued increases in inflation and GDP is weaker than expected. The Powell Fed never got inflation under control and the GDP numbers are polluted by wasteful government spending that doesn’t help US citizens, … Read more
Kevin Warsh takes the big chair with no room to cut. The stock market yawns and I point out for the nth time that Fed rate cuts don’t lead to lower borrowing rates. The yield on the Japanese Government 30 year is up by even more leading to a reduced incentive for the carry trade. … Read more
