The new CPI was a win for the disinflation crowd as the all-items inflation metric falls to 2.3%. On the other hand, we’ve been above the 2% target for 50 straight months, and I think the target is 2% too high. The market celebrated a temporary tariff truce with China as both sides agree to … Read more
Florida Man kills python by throwing an alligator at it requiring insurance claims on three totaled tricycles? Last week, I let you know I was on a 9-hour train trip from NYC to Pittsburgh to visit my favorite cousin, Robb, and my Great Uncle Herby. Because they wouldn’t let me drive the train, I was … Read more
More than a year ago, I stopped writing about the employment numbers. In some ways, there is nothing more important to the economy than the number of people gaining or losing jobs. The reason I stopped was the “data” was clearly being faked. Month after month, we saw great job growth on the day of … Read more
Leading off the week was the Federal Reserve which took no action and surprised no one. DKI thinks this was the right move. Of greater concern, had they lowered the fed funds rate, we think the yield on the 10-year would have increased. The Fed remains trapped and irrelevant. US oil inventories are down at … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.3% for the last year and up 0.2% for the month. Those are both 0.1% below expectations. The 0.2% monthly increase reverses last month’s -0.1% deflation figure. The Core CPI which excludes food and energy was up 2.8% … Read more
Last week, I let you know I rented out my house in Connecticut and was going to spend a year working from all over the world. Whenever I told people about my plans, everyone’s first question was about where I was going to go. My first thought was about who I was going to see, … Read more
We lead off with the news that 1Q GDP came in both negative and below expectations. That, combined with a higher-than-expected inflation number, had investors worried about stagflation again. DKI thinks the data is less significant that some others do. President Trump’s tariffs provide the US with a big win and a potential loss (depending … Read more
If you had a year to work from anywhere, where would you go? What would you do? What ideas would you want to explore. What skills or personal practices would you want to improve? For me, these are not hypothetical questions. Regular DKI readers know of my love of travel. I am very fortunate to … Read more
The market is down this morning on a worse than expected 1Q GDP estimate. GDP was reported at -0.3% which was below expectations of -0.2%. In addition, the Personal Consumption Expenditures figure came in 0.1% above expectations. While the market had a strong reaction, I don’t think this news is significant. 1) The stagflation story … Read more
