urgent
September CPI is 2.4%
Overview: Today, we got the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.4% for the last year and 0.2% for the month. That’s slightly below last month’s 2.5% and above expectations by 0.1%. The 0.2% monthly increase was above the 0.1% expected. The Core CPI which excludes food and energy … Read more
The Fed Pivot is Here
Overview: The Federal Reserve completed its September meeting and decided to cut the fed funds rate by 50bp (.5%). Significant items: The market knew the Fed would pivot and cut at this meeting. There was substantial debate regarding the size of the cut. I had expected 25bp (.25%). The doves in the crowd calling … Read more
August CPI is 2.5%
Overview: Today, we got the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.5% for the last year and 0.3% for the month. That’s below last month’s 2.9% and consistent with expectations. The 0.3% monthly increase was above the 0.2% expected, and a bigger increase than last month’s 0.2%. The Core … Read more
June Fed Meeting
The Federal Reserve completed its June meeting, and kept the fed funds rate unchanged. Your bullet points ahead of Chairman Powell’s 2:30PM press conference. The fed funds rate remains unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50%. Earlier this year, most market participants expected the Fed to cut by either the January meeting or the March one. … Read more
May CPI is 3.3%
This piece was originally published on June 12th, 2024 Overview: Today, we got the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 3.3% unadjusted in the last year and 0.2% vs last month. That’s slightly below last month’s 3.4% and expectations of 3.4%. The 0.2% monthly increase was below the 0.3% … Read more
April PCE of 2.7% – Consistent with Expectations
This morning, we got the April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. This is the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve. The PCE was up 0.3% vs last month and 2.7% vs last year. This was the same as last month and consistent with expectations. The Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, was up … Read more