I had the chance to talk with Phil Muscatello on the Stocks for Beginners podcast https://www.stocksforbeginners.net/blog/gary-brode-dki Join Gary and me as we dissect the current state of the US Stock Market. Dominated by the ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech companies, the S&P 500 has wiped out all its gains for 2023. We explore the consequences of increasing … Read more
Last week, I had the pleasure of spending an hour talking to Michael Gayed of the Lead Lag Report about Counter-Intuitive Inflation. You can check out the episode here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mV01sg6aB2k&t=12s
I had the pleasure of being hosted by Tony Nash of Complete Intelligence along with Tracy Shuchart and David Cervantes. We cover a lot of ground regarding the macro situation, housing, and food-related commodities. You can check it out here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oA_JWuM2-8.
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. Epilogue: There’s no avoiding the fact that US government liabilities are already at a level that can’t be paid, and Congress is going to continue spending us further into bankruptcy (super-bankruptcy?). I want to provide some clarity … Read more
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. Conclusion: Right now, the Federal Reserve is doing the right thing. Inflation is a long-term problem, and sticky services inflation combined with rising energy prices mean the disinflation story is dead for now. Raising interest rates is … Read more
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. The Question I Can’t Answer is Timing: I think we can all agree that as we close in on $250 trillion of obligations that this can’t possibly be paid. There is no level of taxation or asset … Read more
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. How Rate Hikes Can Be Inflationary and Why It’s Different This Time: What we’ve shown above is how overspending leads to inflation, and that the US government has no plans to curtail spending. For now, that includes … Read more
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. Uncontrollable Spending Leads to an Unsolvable Problem: There are three huge parts to the US Government’s budget. Right now, there is no appetite to cut military spending, but that’s going to happen in the future. The remaining … Read more
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. How Overspending Creates Inflation: Right now, the US Congress is running a $2 trillion annual deficit. That’s the on-balance sheet number, and the one we see associated with the $33 trillion national debt. When you include off-balance … Read more
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. Introduction: During inflationary times, and especially when we have high employment and growing GDP, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to reduce inflation. Raising interest rates is a crude tool, but historically, an effective one. Now, some … Read more
