The Higher for Longer Part II Declared Jerome “The Hammer” Powell Issue Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, continues to hammer home his “higher for longer” mantra regarding rates. The pivot will come eventually, but no time soon. The economy is showing surprising strength, and while there is still some ambiguity to the data, the nightmare economic … Read more
The Higher for Longer and Jerome’s not Kidding Issue Jerome Powell tells the “pivot people” higher for longer. We’ve been seeing inconsistent economic data turning more negative. DKI Board Member Mish Shedlock illustrates this point and Michael Gayed warns about the possibility of another round of stagflation. DKI agrees with both of them. Charlie Biello … Read more
The “Pause” Issue New CPI is lower, unless you count Core CPI which is sticky. Fed “pauses”, but raises rate target for the year and pours cold water on the “pivot” soon crowd. The $ATVI / $MSFT deal faces further hurdles. And the yield curve continues to indicate a coming recession. We also congratulate DKI … Read more
The Real Estate Issue Commercial real estate is collapsing while home prices have remained relatively stable. Want to know how and why? We have you covered. Plus, there’s more Chinese data threatening a global slowdown and US consumers continue to spend even though it means running up more credit card debt. What do higher credit … Read more
The Inconsistent Data Issue DKI has been writing about inconsistent economic data since last November. We’re now seeing the ISM, PMI, goods and discretionary purchases all showing weakness. Lumber is down but housing prices haven’t crashed yet despite higher financing costs. Services and employment data all showing strength. Don’t know what all of those things … Read more
The Crisis Issue In this week’s 5 Things we examine a possible government debt default, a possible coming recession, the Federal Reserve’s continuing insistence that we’re not getting a pivot, and the possibility that AI destroys humanity (or at least the stock market). Let’s dive in… 1) Nvidia Earnings Good – Guidance Great ($NVDA) Graphics … Read more
The Corporate Earnings Issue Company earnings this week tell us a lot more about the economy and the health of the consumer. The housing market remains largely locked-up with falling transaction volume. Fed Governors now agreeing with DKI. (I know – I didn’t expect to write that either.) Plus, there’s a new stock writeup on … Read more
The Macro Issue (Again) Lots of new macro data this week with less company news. In a trend we’ve been highlighting for 6 months, the data is inconsistent. The good news is whether you’d like to see higher rates, lower rates, a stronger economy, a weaker economy, or a better/worse labor market, there’s something to … Read more
The AI Issue This week we have data and analysis of the latest (and possibly last) Fed hike of this cycle, consistently inconsistent economic data (particularly when it comes to the employment picture), and our continuing disagreement with the market regarding whether Jerome Powell is serious when he says “higher for longer”. However, we think … Read more
The Reserve Currency Issue DKI started writing about issues regarding the status of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency over a year ago, and it’s been a regular topic of commentary on the blog. This week, we’ll examine some of the key issues surrounding the long-term health of the dollar as well as recent … Read more
