This wasn’t a good week for the “pivot” people and asset gatherers who have been begging the Federal Reserve for lower rates. We got a higher-than-expected CPI and PPI. Making things worse, the short-term monthly numbers have started to accelerate meaning the disinflation story might be dead for now. Retail sales and manufacturing numbers were … Read more
This week, Jerome Powell spoke to Congress and was more dovish than he’s been in years. He’s gone from channeling former Fed Chairman, Volker, who crushed inflation with interest rates approaching 20% to sounding like Volker’s predecessor, Arthur Burns, who reduced interest rates before getting inflation under control. We saw weaker than expected job reports, … Read more
This week, economic data decided to pull a George Costanza and do the opposite of everything it has been doing. DKI has highlighted the trend of inconsistent data in recent months, and this week, many of those inconsistent trends reversed. Confusing? Don’t worry, we’ll explain. We also have some excellent fundamental news from Shockwave Medical … Read more
Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen speaking in public typically leads to her accidentally saying things out loud that confirm the fears of her critics. At the same time, the Bitcoin bears who celebrated a small decrease in the dollar price of Bitcoin last month have gone into hibernation causing quiet in my Twitter/X feed. I believe … Read more
The Federal Reserve surprised the market by leaving the fed funds rate unchanged and indicating its not inclined to lower at the next meeting in March. The market was disappointed, but a better-than-expected manufacturing index with higher-than-expected pricing plus a seemingly hot labor market support the Fed’s decision. There was huge growth in jobs, but … Read more
Every week in January, we’ve been pointing out the inconsistencies we see in macro-economic data. The trend becomes even more pronounced this week with contradictory insight on the economy being provided by the GDP report, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, and the purchasing manager’s index. The results are so confusing that commentary by S&P Global … Read more
Like last week, we’re seeing more inconsistent data. The retail sales number indicates a strong economy and a “higher for longer” Federal Reserve. The new manufacturing data indicates a weakening economy and a “pivot now” Fed. The most likely result is the Fed doing nothing for now. Taiwan Semiconductor ($TSM) guidance moves the market. And … Read more
Gary Brode of Deep Knowledge Investing and Robb Fahrion of Flying V Group discuss the 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week: The More Inconsistent Data Issue This week, we’ll address the following topics: – Retail sales better than expected. Does this mean “higher for longer”? – Empire State Manufacturing Index is a disaster. … Read more
After years of dragging its feet and losing an important Court case, the SEC finally approved 11 Bitcoin ETFs. Along the way, it managed to accidentally pre-announce the approvals three different ways, then withdrew all of them. Finally, the head of the SEC made it clear he disagreed with the decision of his own agency … Read more
GDP was revised down, but is still at a high level due largely to massive Congressional overspending. FedEx provides a warning about future demand which is then confirmed by November’s PCE data. The Philly Fed shows a massive decline in new orders. Even retail powerhouse, Nike ($NKE) had a bad quarter and gave disappointing forward … Read more
