On Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, spoke at Jackson Hole. He reiterated a commitment to the 2% inflation target and noted that inflation isn’t under control. Most importantly, he acknowledged that the current policy isn’t restrictive. His predecessor, Jerome Powell, used to comment often that he thought Fed policy was restrictive. Most saw the … Read more
It’s just past 1pm in New York as I write this. $BRR up 10.2% Gold up 3.4% Bitcoin up 5.7% Silver up 3.4% 10-Year Treasury yield down 3bp (.03%) 30-Year Treasury yield down 7bp (.07%) That’s a lot of volatility in assets that typically aren’t very volatile. It’s also a lot of volatility for $BRR … Read more
Last month, President Trump was talking about revaluing the gold reserves of the United States. This is a topic he’s broached at other times as well. The expected discussed benefits include strengthening the balance sheet of the Untiled States. Some also think this would cause an increase in the price of gold. I think the … Read more
A personal update: Friday’s surgery went well. I was in a lot of pain over the weekend, but am feeling better every day. I’m doing well, am able to work without limitations, and expect to make a full physical recovery on schedule. I’m so appreciative of all the nice messages I’ve received from the DKI … Read more
Bitcoin has a volatile price history. An article on Portfolio Lab says there have been 16 drawdowns of 20% or more in the past 16 years. There have been four crashes of 75% or more in the past 15 years plus another three of around 50% in that time-frame. That amounts to one 20% drawdown … Read more
Kevin Warsh gets the big chair and the most glamorous job in finance. After months of reporters panicking about the loss of Fed independence (something that never existed), Warsh takes over with no room to cut rates. I said in the summer of ’24 that Powell shouldn’t cut. I stand by that assertion. eBay rejected … Read more
Spirit Airlines filed for Chapter 7 leading X to try to assign political blame. Elizabeth Warren was wrong to brag about blocking the Jet Blue deal and crowing that it was a win for the Biden Administration, but was there something else going on as well? We provide a completely different view free from partisan … Read more
Quick announcement: I’ll be in Bangkok, Thailand for the next 1 – 2 weeks before returning to New York briefly. While I’m here, I’m open to a small number of in-person conversations. If you’re based locally, or know someone here you think it would be worthwhile for me to meet, feel free to reach out … Read more
