This piece was originally published on April 10th, 2024 Overview: Today, we got the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 3.5% unadjusted in the last year and 0.4% vs last month. That’s above last month’s 3.2% and expectations of 3.4%. The 0.4% monthly increase annualizes to 4.9%. The Core … Read more
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index is the preferred inflation metric for the Federal Reserve. This month’s report came out during Good Friday when the markets are closed. Within hours, the hawks who favor higher rates and the doves who favor lower rates all claimed the report vindicated their view. We’ll elaborate. Shockwave Medical $SWAV … Read more
This was a big week for people who follow macroeconomic news. The Federal Reserve kept rates and the dot plot unchanged, but the press release was carefully worded to be opaque. We’ll explain why. After more than a decade of near and even below-zero interest rates at the Bank of Japan, they finally responded to … Read more
Very little that’s new and of interest from Powell’s press conference. The highlights: – Talked about starting to taper quantitative tightening (QT). Said the plan is to get to the same level, but more slowly. – Lots of talk about the strong employment situation. Regular DKI readers know most new jobs are in government. The … Read more
This wasn’t a good week for the “pivot” people and asset gatherers who have been begging the Federal Reserve for lower rates. We got a higher-than-expected CPI and PPI. Making things worse, the short-term monthly numbers have started to accelerate meaning the disinflation story might be dead for now. Retail sales and manufacturing numbers were … Read more
This week, Jerome Powell spoke to Congress and was more dovish than he’s been in years. He’s gone from channeling former Fed Chairman, Volker, who crushed inflation with interest rates approaching 20% to sounding like Volker’s predecessor, Arthur Burns, who reduced interest rates before getting inflation under control. We saw weaker than expected job reports, … Read more
In December, we produced a version of the 5 Things titled “The Smart People Doing Smart Things Issue”. This time, we’re not so positive. This was a week of people being consistently wrong including Bitcoin bears who refuse to apply a consistent lens for their thesis when it’s not working, Fed doves who keep insisting … Read more
This morning, we got the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. This is the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve. The PCE was up .3% vs last month and 2.4% vs last year. The Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, was up .4% vs last month and 2.8% vs last year. All of … Read more
