Market Commentary

Overview: This morning, Bill Ackman of Pershing Square, did a lengthy phone interview on CNBC. Ackman suggested that to stop the spread of the coronavirus, President Trump should close the borders and institute a country-wide quarantine for a month. He described this as an “extended spring break.” He advocated for a 30-day rent, interest, and … Read more

Overview: Three weeks ago, we wrote a piece, Net Short, in which we disclosed that we had a large cash position and had gone short against the market through options spreads. Since then, the market has fallen 20%. Last week, we wrote a piece, Even More Net Short, in which we explained that the corona … Read more

Overview: Two weeks ago, we wrote a piece titled Net Short where we disclosed that we had a large cash position, and had gone short against the market through options spreads. In that piece, we discussed the biological reasons the corona virus was spreading so quickly, the economic disruption that was on the way, and … Read more

Overview: Last Monday, we wrote a report stating that we had gone net short in our portfolio. This was a result of the specific way the corona virus was spreading combined with concerns about the associated economic disruption. A lot has happened in the last week, and we thought it was a good time to … Read more

Overview: Two weeks ago, we revisited our Royal Caribbean thesis in relation to our initial corona virus projections. In that piece, we acknowledged that the virus outbreak has been worse than we had expected and that we were too quick to dismiss the “breathless conspiracy theory” that the virus had been engineered in a Wuhan … Read more

Overview: Last week, we updated you about the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). We considered the possibility that China was under-reporting cases, and that travel-related companies were “going to offer abysmal guidance for the first quarter”. While we continue to believe that the virus will burn itself out, because we didn’t believe that all the bad … Read more

Overview: A new virus called 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has been identified, and is spreading. The virus is similar to the SARS and bird flu viruses we’ve seen come out of Asia in the past two decades. Initial transmission was likely animal to human, and new cases of the illness in people who weren’t at … Read more

Last week Deep Knowledge Investing Food, Restaurant, and Spirits Advisor, Howard Freedland, was asked to speak to The Society of the Four Arts, in Palm Beach, Florida, about the impact of current and projected tariffs on old-world wines. While we normally focus on actionable stock ideas and timely market commentary, Howard is a 20-year veteran … Read more

Overview: Last week we wrote about the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). The disease is spreading and may have changed, and we thought it was time for an update. There is speculation that the virus has mutated into a more transmittable form, but it’s unclear right now whether the virus has, or whether doctors are getting … Read more