Dollar Euro Parity vs Food and Gasoline

Last week, we put out a piece explaining that foreign exchange traders see the US dollar as being strong and that American consumers are experiencing higher prices (meaning a weaker dollar).  Today, the Wall Street Journal published a piece titled “Surging Dollar Raises Possibility of Parity With Euro” explaining that the dollar is strengthening against … Read more

We’re Getting Questions About the Market Short

Yesterday, we got the same question from an existing client and a prospective client.  They both wanted to know if we were taking off our market short.  We’ve been publicly short the S&P 500 (ticker: SPY) and the NASDAQ (ticker: QQQ) since the first week of January.  It’s been our most profitable position this year … Read more

New CPI – Now With More Nonsense

Overview: Today the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 8.3%.  This is above expectations of 8.1% and below last month’s 8.5%.  Let’s discuss what this means. First, as we pointed out in this post, the CPI doesn’t reflect objective reality.  It’s a number made up by the government … Read more

Is the US Dollar Going Up in Value or Down?

Introduction: We’ve been writing about inflation and the destruction of value in the US Dollar since November last year.  However, when we talk to other market professionals, they comment on the strength of the Dollar.  How is this possible?  Can we have a strong Dollar and a weak Dollar at the same time?  Who’s right … Read more

Today’s Tweet-Storm on Inflation

Just posted a lengthy description on inflation on Twitter and thought I’d copy it here so it’s easier for you to find: Last night a client asked me if inflation has peaked. Great question. I think no, but let’s start on the other side. Used auto prices up 40% last year were a huge contributor … Read more

Fed Raises by 50bp – Largest Increase in over 20 Years

Today, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50bp (half a percentage point), the largest increase since 2000.  They also laid out plans to start slowly unwinding the enormous $9 trillion balance sheet the institution is carrying.  We first highlighted the danger that understated and rising inflation posed back in November while the Fed was … Read more

The Depth Report As We Predicted, the Real Estate Market is Starting to Turn – and Here’s What’s Happening to Credit Quality

Overview: Two months ago, we did a webinar with DKI Board Member, Howard Freedland, and his business partner, Sophie Schneeberger of Echo Fine Properties.  We warned that higher interest rates would lead to higher mortgage rates, and that would lead to a softening of the real estate market.  We suggested that people who were going … Read more

The Depth Report Are Meme Stocks Dead – Long-Term Fundamentals vs Mass Psychology – Investing Lessons from Peru

Overview: Last year, a message board on Reddit called Wall Street Bets succeeded in driving up the prices of GameStop (ticker: GME) and AMC Entertainment (ticker: AMC) by huge amounts. The efforts caused billions of dollars of losses at hedge fund, Melvin Capital, enabled some large insider sales, and resulted in the bizarre occurrence of … Read more

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