This is an excerpt from the DKI July letter: The VIX is an index that measures market expectations for volatility in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. The index tends to have a skew in it because investors are much more concerned about downwards volatility than upwards volatility. As a result, we’ll typically … Read more
This is an excerpt from the DKI July letter: Over a year ago, the “pivot people” started calling for the Fed to pivot to lower rates. At the time and for the past year, DKI has said that we were nowhere near a pivot and that we expect the Fed to continue raising. Shortly … Read more
How to Use the Current Recommendations Page One of my favorite parts of running Deep Knowledge Investing is the interactions I have with our subscribers. I tend to get thoughtful questions that serve as a guide for how I can better communicate investment ideas to the community here. A new subscriber had some questions … Read more
This is an excerpt from the DKI July letter: Last month, we wrote this: DKI has been highlighting inconsistent economic data since last November. However, recent news has put that trend on steroids. The ISM Manufacturing Index and the Purchasing Managers’ Index are both showing contraction/recessionary indicators. Demand for goods is weak. Lumber pricing … Read more
The Disinflation Issue Lots of disinflation news this week. Disinflation means a reduction in the rate of inflation. Prices are still going up, but at a slower rate. The data doesn’t paint a perfect picture, and we’ll elaborate in the “Things” below. We also have some new information on the year’s best antitrust case, and … Read more
This is a reminder for tomorrow’s subscriber’s-only webinar with me, Chris Bell (DKI Board of Advisors and National Sales Manager for Horizon Kinetics), and James Davolos (Star portfolio manager for the Horizon Kinetics’ Inflation Beneficiaries Fund). We’ll be covering inflation, the economy, the stock market, and Bitcoin. I’ve also just gotten a couple of questions … Read more
The It’s All About the Employment Report(s) Issue This week, we get conflicting employment reports implying again that more people have taken second and third jobs part time jobs. China announces weak manufacturing data. The Federal Reserve is about to present Japan with a big problem. Finally, we take on the question of whether inflation … Read more
The Higher for Longer Part II Declared Jerome “The Hammer” Powell Issue Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, continues to hammer home his “higher for longer” mantra regarding rates. The pivot will come eventually, but no time soon. The economy is showing surprising strength, and while there is still some ambiguity to the data, the nightmare economic … Read more
