#interestrates

January PCE of 2.4% is Consistent with Expectations

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This morning, we got the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. This is the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve. The PCE was up .3% vs last month and 2.4% vs last year. The Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, was up .4% vs last month and 2.8% vs last year. All of … Read more

Weekly Points – February 23rd, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The All Nvidia All the Time Issue

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At the beginning of the week, we heard the hyperbolic prediction that the Nvidia ($NVDA) earnings report was the most important of all time. That’s ridiculous, and given the reaction of stock markets worldwide, may actually be true. The Fed disappoints investors again and despite Powell saying “higher for longer” for almost two years, somehow … Read more

Weekly Points – February 2nd, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Surprise Higher for Longer Issue

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The Federal Reserve surprised the market by leaving the fed funds rate unchanged and indicating its not inclined to lower at the next meeting in March. The market was disappointed, but a better-than-expected manufacturing index with higher-than-expected pricing plus a seemingly hot labor market support the Fed’s decision. There was huge growth in jobs, but … Read more

Weekly Points – January 26th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Super-Duper Inconsistent Data Issue

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Every week in January, we’ve been pointing out the inconsistencies we see in macro-economic data. The trend becomes even more pronounced this week with contradictory insight on the economy being provided by the GDP report, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, and the purchasing manager’s index. The results are so confusing that commentary by S&P Global … Read more

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