Yesterday, the Federal Reserve “paused” keeping the fed funds rate unchanged. President Trump has been critical of Chairman Powell in public. Chairman Powell has refused to answer questions about President Trump, but is intentionally initiating conflict. I think both men have good and bad points on this topic so let’s dive in to all four … Read more
The Federal Reserve will conclude its first meeting of 2025 later today, and Chairman Powell will hold his usual afternoon press conference. Some market observers are describing this as the least suspenseful meeting of the past three years, and I agree with them. The current consensus (almost 100%) opinion is that the Fed will leave … Read more
This week, Bitcoin dove and then came roaring back above the $100k mark. We think people who believe higher Treasury yields will crash Bitcoin are correct in the short-term, but are missing the big picture regarding the reason for higher yields. Confusing? Don’t worry: We explain. DKI also believes quantum computing could be a cryptography … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.9% for the last year and 0.4% for the month (annualizes to 4.9%). That’s above last month’s 2.7% and above the prior month’s 2.6%. It was in-line with expectations. The Core CPI which excludes food and energy was … Read more
One issue I’ve spent a lot of time discussing with people over the past few months is the recent increase in bond yields. In mid-September, the 10-year Treasury was yielding 3.61%. Despite (or because of) 100bp of Fed rate cuts, the yield on that same security is now up to 4.67%. Some market observers are … Read more
I’m writing this from Bangkok, Thailand where for the first time in all my travels, I’ve gotten sick. Other than the occasional case of travelers’ diarrhea, my friends have laughed and marveled at the fact that I would be out in crowds, on packed subway trains, in sold-out soccer stadiums, and Peruvian salsa clubs and … Read more
In a week of silly and contradictory headlines, the Federal Reserve takes the top spot. The world’s premiere central bank managed to lower the fed funds rate into increasing inflation while reducing future rate hike expectations. Every month, they appear more political. After a month of reporting on weak consumer sales in high-priced discretionary items, … Read more
The Federal Reserve just completed its final meeting of the year and as expected, cut the fed funds rate by 25bp (.25%) to 4.25% – 4.50%. This completes the last cut of the year with a total of 100bp (1%) of cuts for 2024. The release commented on elevated inflation, expanding economic activity, and an … Read more
Both the CPI and the PPI rose from the prior month (again) as DKI predicted. Yet, the Fed is about to cut rates for the third time this year. Just a reminder that we can make money even from bad policy, so make sure your portfolio is prepared for more inflation. The European Central Bank … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.7% for the last year and 0.3% for the month (annualizes to 3.7%). That’s above last month’s 2.6% and above the prior month’s 2.4%. It was in-line with expectations. The Core CPI which excludes food and energy was … Read more
