The CPI rose again and cracked 4%. Energy is still expensive, but you already knew that. The big issue is Powell never got inflation under control. People panicked that Warsh would cut. He can’t and at this point, there’s nothing the Fed can do (something I’ve been saying for the past two years). Bitcoin has … Read more
As before, I also think the previous 9-10 page commentary was helpful when I started writing it every month, but is no longer serving us well. The CPI report does matter, but it’s not driving markets like it did in ’22, ’23, and ’24. In addition, the economy doesn’t change completely from month to month … Read more
Uber is trying to buy Delivery Hero. It would give Uber greater market access in Asia and the Middle East. PCE showed continued increases in inflation and GDP is weaker than expected. The Powell Fed never got inflation under control and the GDP numbers are polluted by wasteful government spending that doesn’t help US citizens, … Read more
Kevin Warsh takes the big chair with no room to cut. The stock market yawns and I point out for the nth time that Fed rate cuts don’t lead to lower borrowing rates. The yield on the Japanese Government 30 year is up by even more leading to a reduced incentive for the carry trade. … Read more
Kevin Warsh gets the big chair and the most glamorous job in finance. After months of reporters panicking about the loss of Fed independence (something that never existed), Warsh takes over with no room to cut rates. I said in the summer of ’24 that Powell shouldn’t cut. I stand by that assertion. eBay rejected … Read more
I’m currently on a train which is why today’s CPI report is late. I also think the previous 9-10 page commentary was helpful when I started writing it every month, but is no longer serving us well. The CPI report does matter, but it’s not driving markets like it did in ’22, ’23, and ’24. … Read more
The PPI came in well below expectations. Energy prices were up as expected, but services pricing was flat. That’s welcome, but the US Congress still intends to debase the dollar into oblivion. Amazon is going to take on Elon Musk and SpaceX’s Starlink by acquiring Globalstar. Apple will have to change suppliers for its satellite … Read more
As noted earlier, there won’t be a long 10 page CPI analysis this month. Your bullet points: – CPI of 3.3% was below the 3.4% expected and far above last month’s 2.4%. – Core CPI of 2.6% was below the 2.7% expected and above last month’s 2.5%. – All items CPI was up 0.9% m/m … Read more
Hi All, Due to travel plans and this month’s CPI report being moved to Friday, I will not be in a position to do the full CPI report writeup today. I’ll be able to read the report and relay to you anything different from expectations or that affects the portfolio, but the usual 10 page … Read more
Is the Strait of Hormuz closed? There have been rumors of ships on fire and Iranian success in adding mines. Some of these rumors were lies and later became true, but as long as captains and ship owners think there’s danger, then the Strait is effectively closed. We saw intra-day oil price moves of 20% … Read more
