CPI Preview
September CPI comes in at 3.7% which was above expectations. I’m updating the charts and will have a full update for subscribers this morning. Please check back – should have it done before the open.
Inflation
Counter-Intuitive Inflation – Epilogue
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. Epilogue: There’s no avoiding the fact that US government liabilities are already at a level that can’t be paid, and Congress is going to continue spending us further into bankruptcy (super-bankruptcy?). I want to provide some clarity … Read more
Counter-Intuitive Inflation – Conclusion
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. Conclusion: Right now, the Federal Reserve is doing the right thing. Inflation is a long-term problem, and sticky services inflation combined with rising energy prices mean the disinflation story is dead for now. Raising interest rates is … Read more
Counter-Intuitive Inflation – The Question I Can’t Answer is Timing
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. The Question I Can’t Answer is Timing: I think we can all agree that as we close in on $250 trillion of obligations that this can’t possibly be paid. There is no level of taxation or asset … Read more
Counter-Intuitive Inflation – How Rate Hikes Can Be Inflationary and Why It’s Different This Time
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. How Rate Hikes Can Be Inflationary and Why It’s Different This Time: What we’ve shown above is how overspending leads to inflation, and that the US government has no plans to curtail spending. For now, that includes … Read more
Counter-Intuitive Inflation – Uncontrollable Spending Leads to an Unsolvable Problem
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. Uncontrollable Spending Leads to an Unsolvable Problem: There are three huge parts to the US Government’s budget. Right now, there is no appetite to cut military spending, but that’s going to happen in the future. The remaining … Read more
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Counter-Intuitive Inflation – How Overspending Creates Inflation
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. How Overspending Creates Inflation: Right now, the US Congress is running a $2 trillion annual deficit. That’s the on-balance sheet number, and the one we see associated with the $33 trillion national debt. When you include off-balance … Read more
Counter-Intuitive Inflation – Introduction
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. Introduction: During inflationary times, and especially when we have high employment and growing GDP, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to reduce inflation. Raising interest rates is a crude tool, but historically, an effective one. Now, some … Read more
Fed Holds Firm – Plus, Higher for Longer
This piece was originally published on September 20th, 2023. The Federal Reserve completed their September meeting and as expected, kept the fed funds rate unchanged. The “surprise” was in the dot plot. The dot plot is where each Fed Governor indicates where they expect rates to be at various points in the future. It further … Read more
