Inflation Report Tomorrow
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Inflation
Monthly Depth Report – March 2024 – The “Store of Value” Debate
With inflation continuing to erode the purchasing power of the dollar and both gold and Bitcoin hitting all-time highs this month, there’s been increasing interest in the concept of what constitutes a store of value. Michael Gayed has asserted that a store of value can’t have tail risk. That means if an asset can have … Read more
Weekly Points–March 22nd, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Economic Humor Issue
This was a big week for people who follow macroeconomic news. The Federal Reserve kept rates and the dot plot unchanged, but the press release was carefully worded to be opaque. We’ll explain why. After more than a decade of near and even below-zero interest rates at the Bank of Japan, they finally responded to … Read more
Notes from the Powell Press Conference
Very little that’s new and of interest from Powell’s press conference. The highlights: – Talked about starting to taper quantitative tightening (QT). Said the plan is to get to the same level, but more slowly. – Lots of talk about the strong employment situation. Regular DKI readers know most new jobs are in government. The … Read more
March Fed Meeting Makes No Changes
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Weekly Points – March 15th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Stagflation and Doom Issue
This wasn’t a good week for the “pivot” people and asset gatherers who have been begging the Federal Reserve for lower rates. We got a higher-than-expected CPI and PPI. Making things worse, the short-term monthly numbers have started to accelerate meaning the disinflation story might be dead for now. Retail sales and manufacturing numbers were … Read more
Weekly Points – March 8th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Powell Just Hit the Panic Button Issue
This week, Jerome Powell spoke to Congress and was more dovish than he’s been in years. He’s gone from channeling former Fed Chairman, Volker, who crushed inflation with interest rates approaching 20% to sounding like Volker’s predecessor, Arthur Burns, who reduced interest rates before getting inflation under control. We saw weaker than expected job reports, … Read more
February CPI is 3.2%
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Weekly Points – March 1st, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Everyone is Wrong and Should Admit it Issue
In December, we produced a version of the 5 Things titled “The Smart People Doing Smart Things Issue”. This time, we’re not so positive. This was a week of people being consistently wrong including Bitcoin bears who refuse to apply a consistent lens for their thesis when it’s not working, Fed doves who keep insisting … Read more
January PCE of 2.4% is Consistent with Expectations
This morning, we got the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. This is the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve. The PCE was up .3% vs last month and 2.4% vs last year. The Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, was up .4% vs last month and 2.8% vs last year. All of … Read more
