February CPI is 3.2%
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Inflation
Weekly Points – March 1st, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Everyone is Wrong and Should Admit it Issue
In December, we produced a version of the 5 Things titled “The Smart People Doing Smart Things Issue”. This time, we’re not so positive. This was a week of people being consistently wrong including Bitcoin bears who refuse to apply a consistent lens for their thesis when it’s not working, Fed doves who keep insisting … Read more
January PCE of 2.4% is Consistent with Expectations
This morning, we got the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. This is the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve. The PCE was up .3% vs last month and 2.4% vs last year. The Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, was up .4% vs last month and 2.8% vs last year. All of … Read more
4Q ’23 GDP Adjustment Doesn’t Matter – Still Gets Attention
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January CPI is 3.1%
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CPI Analysis Out This Morning
CPI was announced 15 minutes ago and came in above expectations. Full analysis will be up on the blog this morning, but after the 9am email. Please check here shortly – thank you.
Federal Reserve Shocks Market by Doing Exactly What They Said They’d Do
The Federal Reserve concluded its January meeting by deciding to keep the fed funds rate unchanged. There have been times in the last couple of months where the market put a 60% – 70% probability of a January rate cut. DKI has insisted all along that while we’ve hit the terminal rate (the highest fed … Read more
4Q ’23 GDP is Excellent – Sort of…
The first estimate of 4Q GDP came out this morning. Growth of 3.3% was well above expectations of 2%. As usual, we’ll go through a couple of adjustments. DKI adjusts for change in private inventories because it reflects inventory stocking or de-stocking as opposed to actual economic activity. 4Q inventory additions were only .07% which … Read more
December CPI is 3.4%
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Powell’s Change in Tone
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