The first estimate of 4Q GDP came out this morning. Growth of 3.3% was well above expectations of 2%. As usual, we’ll go through a couple of adjustments. DKI adjusts for change in private inventories because it reflects inventory stocking or de-stocking as opposed to actual economic activity. 4Q inventory additions were only .07% which … Read more
Like last week, we’re seeing more inconsistent data. The retail sales number indicates a strong economy and a “higher for longer” Federal Reserve. The new manufacturing data indicates a weakening economy and a “pivot now” Fed. The most likely result is the Fed doing nothing for now. Taiwan Semiconductor ($TSM) guidance moves the market. And … Read more
For two years, Wall Street pundits and asset gatherers have been screaming for the Fed to pivot to lower interest rates. Unsurprisingly, they make more money when asset prices are high. They were doing this even as the CPI was approaching double digits and when real inflation was approaching 20%. This week, Fed Chairman, Jerome … Read more
It was a big week for spending. The consumer bought huge amounts of holiday gifts. (For my fellow Michiganders, the consumer did get much on sale because they require big savings.) The government bought a big positive revised GDP print. And Sheldon Adelson’s widow, Miriam, bought most of a basketball team. If you don’t want … Read more
The Close the * Door Issue: We saw the most entertaining press conference by a Federal Reserve Chairman in decades. Jerome Powell “surprised” Wall Street by saying exactly the same thing he’s been saying for almost two years, then got caught on a hot mike wanting to shut the door on badly-behaved protesters. A Treasury … Read more
