The Sovereign Debt Explosion Issue This was the most fascinating week I’ve seen in the sovereign debt market in decades. Sovereign debt is just a fancy name for government bonds. Are we looking at the beginning of a multi-country sovereign debt disaster? Plus, the Saudis extend an oil production cut, a government bailout still leads … Read more
The Corporate Earnings and Clickbait Issue In honor of the entire mainstream media squawking about interest rates at 22-year highs (while being in-line with long-term trends), we’ll be introducing all of this week’s “Things” with clickbait headlines. This week, DKI readers and Twitter (or “X”) followers will get to read about: Fed Raises to Highest … Read more
The Banking Issue The banks announced earnings this week. We’ll examine the performance of the Too Big to Fail (TBTF) banks vs the investment banks vs the regionals. Does the government have their thumb on the scale pushing deposits and profitability to one sector? Yes, and we’ll discuss why it matters. Plus, bonus points on … Read more
The Disinflation Issue Lots of disinflation news this week. Disinflation means a reduction in the rate of inflation. Prices are still going up, but at a slower rate. The data doesn’t paint a perfect picture, and we’ll elaborate in the “Things” below. We also have some new information on the year’s best antitrust case, and … Read more
The It’s All About the Employment Report(s) Issue This week, we get conflicting employment reports implying again that more people have taken second and third jobs part time jobs. China announces weak manufacturing data. The Federal Reserve is about to present Japan with a big problem. Finally, we take on the question of whether inflation … Read more
The Higher for Longer Part II Declared Jerome “The Hammer” Powell Issue Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, continues to hammer home his “higher for longer” mantra regarding rates. The pivot will come eventually, but no time soon. The economy is showing surprising strength, and while there is still some ambiguity to the data, the nightmare economic … Read more
The Higher for Longer and Jerome’s not Kidding Issue Jerome Powell tells the “pivot people” higher for longer. We’ve been seeing inconsistent economic data turning more negative. DKI Board Member Mish Shedlock illustrates this point and Michael Gayed warns about the possibility of another round of stagflation. DKI agrees with both of them. Charlie Biello … Read more
The “Pause” Issue New CPI is lower, unless you count Core CPI which is sticky. Fed “pauses”, but raises rate target for the year and pours cold water on the “pivot” soon crowd. The $ATVI / $MSFT deal faces further hurdles. And the yield curve continues to indicate a coming recession. We also congratulate DKI … Read more
The Real Estate Issue Commercial real estate is collapsing while home prices have remained relatively stable. Want to know how and why? We have you covered. Plus, there’s more Chinese data threatening a global slowdown and US consumers continue to spend even though it means running up more credit card debt. What do higher credit … Read more
The Inconsistent Data Issue DKI has been writing about inconsistent economic data since last November. We’re now seeing the ISM, PMI, goods and discretionary purchases all showing weakness. Lumber is down but housing prices haven’t crashed yet despite higher financing costs. Services and employment data all showing strength. Don’t know what all of those things … Read more
