The title is intentionally confusing. Introduction: One of the most challenging parts of trying to evaluate the stock market is the second-order game of figuring out what everyone else is expecting. I’ve seen uncertain situations where we got the “bad” outcome and the stock went up on resolution of the uncertainty (even if it was … Read more
Introduction: At various times, there have been situations where economic news that was better than expected led to an immediate market decline, and where negative or disappointing economic news led to the market rising. This effect has been particularly pronounced this year. Ever wonder who’s benefiting from a bad economy and want to know what’s … Read more
Introduction: Today’s inflation report came in at 8.5% which was slightly below the 8.7% that the market expected. The thinking is that now that inflation has come down from the 9.1% from last month and was below the expected number, we’re closer to Federal Reserve rate cuts and that’s why the market was up today. … Read more
We have warned, and warned and warned that the design of the anti-Russian sanctions are impairing the value of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. In particular, we have been concerned about the status of the petrodollar. The US made a deal with Saudi Arabia in the 1970s where in exchange for the US … Read more
Great guest post today from DKI Board of Advisors member Howard Freedland. He’s been working in the residential and commercial real estate space in the ultra-hot West Palm Beach, FL market. That market has seen some of the biggest excesses of the Covid-real estate era, and as we predicted several months ago, it’s all starting … Read more
Introduction: One of the best parts of running Deep Knowledge Investing is my interactions with the Board of Advisors. It’s a remarkable group of people with a wide range of high-level specific expertise. DKI is set up to foster discussion and debate on all issues, and even college interns are encouraged to advocate for their … Read more
Today, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced 2Q GDP that was down .9%. It’s not a big number, but it is a negative one, and that, combined with negative GDP growth in the first quarter means the US is officially in a recession. Washington D.C. politicians, political operatives, media allies, and the White … Read more
Last month, the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by 75 basis points (.75%) which was the largest rate increase in nearly three decades. Today, they did it again and raised another 75 basis points. The market was already up on Google and Microsoft results that while below estimates, weren’t as bad as feared. … Read more
‘When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.’ ‘The question is,’ said Alice, ‘whether you can make words mean so many different things.’ ‘The question is,’ said Humpty Dumpty, ‘which is to be master—that’s all.’ Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland is one of … Read more
