Every week in January, we’ve been pointing out the inconsistencies we see in macro-economic data. The trend becomes even more pronounced this week with contradictory insight on the economy being provided by the GDP report, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, and the purchasing manager’s index. The results are so confusing that commentary by S&P Global … Read more
The first estimate of 4Q GDP came out this morning. Growth of 3.3% was well above expectations of 2%. As usual, we’ll go through a couple of adjustments. DKI adjusts for change in private inventories because it reflects inventory stocking or de-stocking as opposed to actual economic activity. 4Q inventory additions were only .07% which … Read more
Like last week, we’re seeing more inconsistent data. The retail sales number indicates a strong economy and a “higher for longer” Federal Reserve. The new manufacturing data indicates a weakening economy and a “pivot now” Fed. The most likely result is the Fed doing nothing for now. Taiwan Semiconductor ($TSM) guidance moves the market. And … Read more
After years of dragging its feet and losing an important Court case, the SEC finally approved 11 Bitcoin ETFs. Along the way, it managed to accidentally pre-announce the approvals three different ways, then withdrew all of them. Finally, the head of the SEC made it clear he disagreed with the decision of his own agency … Read more
Hi All, Some interesting conversations taking place this week. On Wednesday, at 11am Eastern Time, I’m doing a Twitter Space with Tracy (@ChiGirl) and Jack Farley (@JackFarley96). We’ll be discussing the macro environment. Please join us here: https://twitter.com/MicDropMarkets/status/1746608890962219244 On Thursday, Michael Gayed is doing an all day event sponsored by Hashdex featuring some of the … Read more
GDP was revised down, but is still at a high level due largely to massive Congressional overspending. FedEx provides a warning about future demand which is then confirmed by November’s PCE data. The Philly Fed shows a massive decline in new orders. Even retail powerhouse, Nike ($NKE) had a bad quarter and gave disappointing forward … Read more
Hi All, While I travel extensively, I haven’t taken two days off in a row since starting DKI four years ago. All of us need a chance to rest and recharge and doing so will leave me in a better position to be effective going into 2024. I’m going to take off a couple of … Read more
For two years, Wall Street pundits and asset gatherers have been screaming for the Fed to pivot to lower interest rates. Unsurprisingly, they make more money when asset prices are high. They were doing this even as the CPI was approaching double digits and when real inflation was approaching 20%. This week, Fed Chairman, Jerome … Read more
Gary Brode of Deep Knowledge Investing and Robb Fahrion of Flying V Group discuss the 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week: The Pivot Issue This week, we’ll address the following topics: – The Powell pivot. This week he delivered a different message. It’s different this time? Yes, it is. – The CPI: Still … Read more
