This piece was originally published on July 11th, 2024 Overview: Today, we got the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 3.0% unadjusted in the last year and DOWN 0.1% vs last month. That’s below last month’s 3.3% and expectations of 3.1%. The 0.1% monthly decrease was below the 0.1% … Read more
On the day that the United States celebrated declaring independence from the British, the UK elected a new Labor government. Is this a coincidence – definitely yes! Bitcoin falls on temporary trading issues. Hodlers shrug and don’t panic. DKI approves and sides with the hodlers. Chairman Powell comments on inflation and appears determined not to … Read more
We lead off with a government official meme’ing herself. (Is meme’ing a word? Can we get a ruling by someone over the age of 25 on that?) Despite a terrible reputation as someone who doesn’t understand the impact of inflation on normal people, Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, couldn’t resist letting Americans know she thinks their … Read more
Yet another government agency revises its projections. This seems to be a weekly thing these days. Anyone want to guess which direction the revisions headed? The Bank of England disappoints UK doves and holds rates steady. DKI thinks it’s all Taylor Swift’s fault. GameStop $GME management combined with Roaring Kitty’s memes have been great for … Read more
I wish I were making this up, but Jerome Powell actually acknowledged the Fed doesn’t have high confidence in its own forecasts. In fairness, we don’t have confidence in their forecasts either. DKI pointed that out in a recent monthly letter where we detailed how inaccurate even near-term Fed forecasts have been. Past that, there … Read more
The Federal Reserve completed its June meeting, and kept the fed funds rate unchanged. Your bullet points ahead of Chairman Powell’s 2:30PM press conference. The fed funds rate remains unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50%. Earlier this year, most market participants expected the Fed to cut by either the January meeting or the March one. … Read more
This piece was originally published on June 12th, 2024 Overview: Today, we got the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 3.3% unadjusted in the last year and 0.2% vs last month. That’s slightly below last month’s 3.4% and expectations of 3.4%. The 0.2% monthly increase was below the 0.3% … Read more
Ok – it’s a bit of a clickbait title. I confess. The economic news this week wasn’t great, but we’re not actually at doomsday. I’ve been making the point that we’re in a bifurcated economy where a few people doing extremely well pulls up the overall statistics while hiding the fact that most of the … Read more
Comments by a Fed Governor started a debate this week on the future of rate HIKES. That was followed by a PCE report that had both the hawks and doves declaring victory. The underlying data isn’t getting better and the government is still engaging in massive stimulus so DKI’s conclusions will not surprise you. 1Q … Read more
This morning, we got the April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. This is the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve. The PCE was up 0.3% vs last month and 2.7% vs last year. This was the same as last month and consistent with expectations. The Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, was up … Read more
