We hit earnings season and with the Magnificent 7 priced for perfection, it was going to take “perfect” earnings reports to keep the market from falling. $GOOG and $TSLA showed some weakness and for the second straight week, tech leads the stock market lower. Coursera $COUR beats earnings and positions itself as an AI play … Read more
This morning, we got the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. This is the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve. The PCE was up 0.1% vs last month and 2.5% vs last year. The monthly number accelerated by 0.1% and the yearly declined by 0.1%; both very small changes in trend. The 2.5% annual … Read more
DKI published a white paper in November of 2021 warning that inflation was a big and non-transitory problem. By May or June of 2022, most of the big macro strategists were already calling for Federal Reserve rate cuts despite continued high inflation. I’ve spent the past two plus years saying rate cuts would eventually come, … Read more
This was a fascinating week featuring political shifts, increased market volatility, and a week-long drop in the stock prices of the mega-cap tech leaders that have been supporting the equity market indexes the past couple of years. This week, we’re focused on higher retail sales and wondering if anything will slow the consumer. Higher jobless … Read more
When I was growing up in the Detroit area, the Zoo there did a famous commercial where the animals were getting ready to go “on stage” for the opening. At one point, all the monkeys ran to the right encouraged by one in the front saying “Ok guys, this way”. Then, all the monkeys ran … Read more
This piece was originally published on July 12th, 2024 Overview: Today we got the June Producer Price Index (PPI). The PPI is similar to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) except it measures pricing changes experienced by manufacturers and suppliers of goods and services. Because price changes in the PPI make their way into the CPI … Read more
This piece was originally published on July 11th, 2024 Overview: Today, we got the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 3.0% unadjusted in the last year and DOWN 0.1% vs last month. That’s below last month’s 3.3% and expectations of 3.1%. The 0.1% monthly decrease was below the 0.1% … Read more
On the day that the United States celebrated declaring independence from the British, the UK elected a new Labor government. Is this a coincidence – definitely yes! Bitcoin falls on temporary trading issues. Hodlers shrug and don’t panic. DKI approves and sides with the hodlers. Chairman Powell comments on inflation and appears determined not to … Read more
We lead off with a government official meme’ing herself. (Is meme’ing a word? Can we get a ruling by someone over the age of 25 on that?) Despite a terrible reputation as someone who doesn’t understand the impact of inflation on normal people, Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, couldn’t resist letting Americans know she thinks their … Read more
Yet another government agency revises its projections. This seems to be a weekly thing these days. Anyone want to guess which direction the revisions headed? The Bank of England disappoints UK doves and holds rates steady. DKI thinks it’s all Taylor Swift’s fault. GameStop $GME management combined with Roaring Kitty’s memes have been great for … Read more
