#portfoliomanagement

Do You Adapt to Changing Market Conditions?

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I’ve worked for and run a variety of different hedge funds with multiple strategies: concentrated long-only, long-short equity, long-term value, special situations, growth investing, options-based hedging, and even risk arbitrage (betting on the results of an announced but not completed merger or acquisition).  The best investors have a clear understanding of what makes a good investment … Read more

Questioning the “Bonds are Cheap” Narrative in Pictures

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Introduction: We’ve noted in the past that many market participants are eagerly waiting for the “Fed pivot”; the time when they expect the Federal Reserve will reassure investors that it’s done raising rates and can get back to more of the fun zero-interest rate combined with trillions of dollars of quantitative easing.  Of course that … Read more

Another Big Fed Rate Hike

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As “expected” the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by another 75 basis points (.75%) today.  We put “expected” in quotation marks because when we started writing about inflation ten months ago, the big Wall Street firms thought we’d get a total of 75 basis points of rate hikes for all of 2022.  We … Read more

I Know That You Know That I Know That You Don’t Know What You’re Doing

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The title is intentionally confusing. Introduction: One of the most challenging parts of trying to evaluate the stock market is the second-order game of figuring out what everyone else is expecting.  I’ve seen uncertain situations where we got the “bad” outcome and the stock went up on resolution of the uncertainty (even if it was … Read more

Yahoo Finance Gets it Right on S&P 500 Earnings

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Last week, in an article titled “One Way or Another, We’re Going to End Up in the Same Place“, we wrote that we expected the Federal Reserve rate hikes to work and in the process, cause a further slowdown in economic growth.  Deep Knowledge Investing has said and written since February that the US economy … Read more

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