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Weekly Points – August 16th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Disinflation Issue
The big news this week was the lower-than-expected CPI and PPI figures for July. While expectations for a September 50bp (0.5%) rate cut by the Fed changes on a daily basis, DKI agrees with current consensus that we’ll see a 25bp cut next month. We believe that’s premature and unwise, but still think that’s what’s … Read more
Federal Reserve Meeting Commentary
The Federal Reserve completed its July meeting today. As usual, they put out a press release and Chairman Powell had a press conference. A few bullet points to understand the situation: – The Fed kept rates unchanged for now. This was expected. – The language surrounding employment gains, the unemployment rate, and inflation was softened … Read more
Macro Commentary and an Unsurprising Conclusion
DKI published a white paper in November of 2021 warning that inflation was a big and non-transitory problem. By May or June of 2022, most of the big macro strategists were already calling for Federal Reserve rate cuts despite continued high inflation. I’ve spent the past two plus years saying rate cuts would eventually come, … Read more
Weekly Points – June 21st, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Taylor Swift is Responsible for Inflation Issue
Yet another government agency revises its projections. This seems to be a weekly thing these days. Anyone want to guess which direction the revisions headed? The Bank of England disappoints UK doves and holds rates steady. DKI thinks it’s all Taylor Swift’s fault. GameStop $GME management combined with Roaring Kitty’s memes have been great for … Read more
Weekly Points – May 31st, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The No Rate Hikes Next Month Issue
Comments by a Fed Governor started a debate this week on the future of rate HIKES. That was followed by a PCE report that had both the hawks and doves declaring victory. The underlying data isn’t getting better and the government is still engaging in massive stimulus so DKI’s conclusions will not surprise you. 1Q … Read more
April PCE of 2.7% – Consistent with Expectations
This morning, we got the April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. This is the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve. The PCE was up 0.3% vs last month and 2.7% vs last year. This was the same as last month and consistent with expectations. The Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, was up … Read more
Weekly Points – May 17th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Let’s Look at the Data Issue
DKI stock pick, AuthID, announces 1Q revenue almost as high as all of 2023. Guidance indicates they expect quarterly revenue to double this year. They still need to announce new contracts, but the year is off to an excellent start. Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact makes a brilliant point explaining fiscal dominance. DKI illustrated the Fed’s dilemma … Read more
April CPI is 3.4%
This piece was originally published on May 15th, 2024 Overview: Today, we got the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 3.4% unadjusted in the last year and 0.3% vs last month. That’s slightly below last month’s 3.5% and in-line with expectations of 3.4%. The 0.3% monthly increase was below … Read more
April PPI Above Expectations
The PPI is the producer price index, and is a measure of wholesale prices. In general, higher producer prices make their way into higher consumer prices. The April PPI was up 0.5% from last month which was much higher than the 0.3% expected. It also reversed the direction of last month’s decline. The yearly PPI … Read more
