#interestrates

Financial News Outlets Finally Seeing Our Point on Losses at the Fed

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Two months ago, we noted that the Federal Reserve held about $9 trillion of assets that are primarily treasury bonds and mortgage backed securities (that the Fed is not allowed to hold).  We wrote that these assets decline in value when interest rates rise, and that if the Fed accelerated the pace of quantitative tightening, … Read more

Squirrels 2 – Central Bankers 0

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A squirrel stored 300 pounds of acorns inside a transmitting antenna.  At this point, is there anyone who thinks our debt/money printing/currency debasement regime is superior to a small rodent who saves during the summer so it has food (income) during the winter? The squirrel stocked about 150 kilos of acorns inside the transmitting antenna. … Read more

Do You Adapt to Changing Market Conditions?

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I’ve worked for and run a variety of different hedge funds with multiple strategies: concentrated long-only, long-short equity, long-term value, special situations, growth investing, options-based hedging, and even risk arbitrage (betting on the results of an announced but not completed merger or acquisition).  The best investors have a clear understanding of what makes a good investment … Read more

Questioning the “Bonds are Cheap” Narrative in Pictures

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Introduction: We’ve noted in the past that many market participants are eagerly waiting for the “Fed pivot”; the time when they expect the Federal Reserve will reassure investors that it’s done raising rates and can get back to more of the fun zero-interest rate combined with trillions of dollars of quantitative easing.  Of course that … Read more

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