#interestrates

Do You Adapt to Changing Market Conditions?

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I’ve worked for and run a variety of different hedge funds with multiple strategies: concentrated long-only, long-short equity, long-term value, special situations, growth investing, options-based hedging, and even risk arbitrage (betting on the results of an announced but not completed merger or acquisition).  The best investors have a clear understanding of what makes a good investment … Read more

Questioning the “Bonds are Cheap” Narrative in Pictures

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Introduction: We’ve noted in the past that many market participants are eagerly waiting for the “Fed pivot”; the time when they expect the Federal Reserve will reassure investors that it’s done raising rates and can get back to more of the fun zero-interest rate combined with trillions of dollars of quantitative easing.  Of course that … Read more

Another Big Fed Rate Hike

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As “expected” the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by another 75 basis points (.75%) today.  We put “expected” in quotation marks because when we started writing about inflation ten months ago, the big Wall Street firms thought we’d get a total of 75 basis points of rate hikes for all of 2022.  We … Read more

Down Goes the Petrodollar

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We have warned, and warned and warned that the design of the anti-Russian sanctions are impairing the value of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.  In particular, we have been concerned about the status of the petrodollar.  The US made a deal with Saudi Arabia in the 1970s where in exchange for the US … Read more

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