Overview: Today, we got the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.5% for the last year and 0.3% for the month. That’s below last month’s 2.9% and consistent with expectations. The 0.3% monthly increase was above the 0.2% expected, and a bigger increase than last month’s 0.2%. The Core … Read more
The week started with political proposals that will lead to production cuts and a reduced food supply. In the middle of the week, DKI released its new health care stock idea. Subscribers are already up around 20% in the name. The week ended with uranium production cuts and Fed Chairman, Powell, indicating the expected September … Read more
Overview: With the end of summer here and the markets closed next Monday, we’re expecting a slow news week with many market participants taking off mid-week for an extended holiday. As a result, we may choose to skip the 5 Things this week and pick that up the following week. Instead, I’ll provide you with … Read more
The big news this week was the lower-than-expected CPI and PPI figures for July. While expectations for a September 50bp (0.5%) rate cut by the Fed changes on a daily basis, DKI agrees with current consensus that we’ll see a 25bp cut next month. We believe that’s premature and unwise, but still think that’s what’s … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.9% for the last year and 0.2% for the month. That’s below last month’s 3.0% and expectations of 3.0%. The 0.2% monthly increase was in line with the 0.2% expected, and a bigger increase vs last month’s -0.1%. … Read more
At the same time the Bank of Japan caused panic and traders began to unwind the carry trade, something DKI has been talking about since October of 2022, multiple retail trading platforms failed. It might be a good time to hedge your portfolio, or have some assets outside the financial system (or both). Last week, … Read more
The PPI stands for Producer Price Index. The reason it’s important as a measure of inflation, is generally, producers see an increase in prices first. When those producers pass on price increases to consumers, we then see that as inflation reflected in a higher CPI (consumer price index) or PCE (personal consumption expenditures). I’ve been … Read more
The Federal Reserve completed its July meeting today. As usual, they put out a press release and Chairman Powell had a press conference. A few bullet points to understand the situation: – The Fed kept rates unchanged for now. This was expected. – The language surrounding employment gains, the unemployment rate, and inflation was softened … Read more
This morning, we got the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. This is the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve. The PCE was up 0.1% vs last month and 2.5% vs last year. The monthly number accelerated by 0.1% and the yearly declined by 0.1%; both very small changes in trend. The 2.5% annual … Read more
DKI published a white paper in November of 2021 warning that inflation was a big and non-transitory problem. By May or June of 2022, most of the big macro strategists were already calling for Federal Reserve rate cuts despite continued high inflation. I’ve spent the past two plus years saying rate cuts would eventually come, … Read more
