This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. How Overspending Creates Inflation: Right now, the US Congress is running a $2 trillion annual deficit. That’s the on-balance sheet number, and the one we see associated with the $33 trillion national debt. When you include off-balance … Read more
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. Introduction: During inflationary times, and especially when we have high employment and growing GDP, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to reduce inflation. Raising interest rates is a crude tool, but historically, an effective one. Now, some … Read more
This piece was originally published on September 20th, 2023. The Federal Reserve completed their September meeting and as expected, kept the fed funds rate unchanged. The “surprise” was in the dot plot. The dot plot is where each Fed Governor indicates where they expect rates to be at various points in the future. It further … Read more
Normally, I don’t provide updates on daily market action, but there’s something important happening today. Saudi Arabia and Russia have extended production cuts for several additional months. The US has tried to buy a tiny amount of oil to begin to replenish the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), but that keeps pushing oil prices higher. Oil … Read more
This piece was originally published on August 25th, 2023. Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, spoke in Jackson Hole today. Here are my notes on the speech with some additional commentary: Quickly said there’s a “long way to go” to get inflation under control. (DKI: He’s telling investors the “pivot” to lower rates isn’t coming anytime soon.) … Read more
This piece was originally published on August 16th, 2023. Earlier this week, we got retail sales data indicating the US consumer continues to spend without pause. Today, we got to see the minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting where they wrote: “With inflation still well above the Committee’s longer-run goal and the labor … Read more
