September CPI is 3.7%
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Inflation
CPI Preview
September CPI comes in at 3.7% which was above expectations. I’m updating the charts and will have a full update for subscribers this morning. Please check back – should have it done before the open.
Counter-Intuitive Inflation – Epilogue
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. Epilogue: There’s no avoiding the fact that US government liabilities are already at a level that can’t be paid, and Congress is going to continue spending us further into bankruptcy (super-bankruptcy?). I want to provide some clarity … Read more
Counter-Intuitive Inflation – Conclusion
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. Conclusion: Right now, the Federal Reserve is doing the right thing. Inflation is a long-term problem, and sticky services inflation combined with rising energy prices mean the disinflation story is dead for now. Raising interest rates is … Read more
Counter-Intuitive Inflation – The Question I Can’t Answer is Timing
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. The Question I Can’t Answer is Timing: I think we can all agree that as we close in on $250 trillion of obligations that this can’t possibly be paid. There is no level of taxation or asset … Read more
Counter-Intuitive Inflation – How Rate Hikes Can Be Inflationary and Why It’s Different This Time
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. How Rate Hikes Can Be Inflationary and Why It’s Different This Time: What we’ve shown above is how overspending leads to inflation, and that the US government has no plans to curtail spending. For now, that includes … Read more
Counter-Intuitive Inflation – Uncontrollable Spending Leads to an Unsolvable Problem
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. Uncontrollable Spending Leads to an Unsolvable Problem: There are three huge parts to the US Government’s budget. Right now, there is no appetite to cut military spending, but that’s going to happen in the future. The remaining … Read more
Portfolio and Market Update
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Counter-Intuitive Inflation – How Overspending Creates Inflation
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. How Overspending Creates Inflation: Right now, the US Congress is running a $2 trillion annual deficit. That’s the on-balance sheet number, and the one we see associated with the $33 trillion national debt. When you include off-balance … Read more
Counter-Intuitive Inflation – Introduction
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. Introduction: During inflationary times, and especially when we have high employment and growing GDP, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to reduce inflation. Raising interest rates is a crude tool, but historically, an effective one. Now, some … Read more
