The first estimate of 4Q GDP came out this morning. Growth of 3.3% was well above expectations of 2%. As usual, we’ll go through a couple of adjustments. DKI adjusts for change in private inventories because it reflects inventory stocking or de-stocking as opposed to actual economic activity. 4Q inventory additions were only .07% which … Read more
While Americans are focused on our own coming (and just passed) elections, Argentina had a monumental event. Using national ID and paper ballots, they were able to get votes counted the same night and found that a small-government capitalist in favor of sound money had won a huge and shocking victory. Here in the US, … Read more
This piece was originally published on November 27th, 2023. Overview: Market pundits have been spending the last two years predicting recessions. The typical setup right now is they project it will happen in the next 2-3 quarters. Every week, I see pundits projecting a recession in 1H 2024. Many of them are the same people … Read more
