May CPI is 2.4%

Overview: Today, we got the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.4% for the last year and up 0.1% for the month. The annual number is up 0.1% from April and in line with expectations. The monthly is down 0.1% and below expectations. The Core CPI which excludes food … Read more

It’s the Bond Market – Here’s What We Do

I’m getting a lot of questions right now about the overall market. People are noticing some strange trading. This morning, the S&P 500 ($SPY) and the NASDAQ ($QQQ) both opened down, traded back to flattish/up small, then fell in the afternoon ending the day down 1.6% and 1.4% respectively. The whole market is volatile right … Read more

April CPI is 2.3%

Overview: Today, we got the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.3% for the last year and up 0.2% for the month. Those are both 0.1% below expectations. The 0.2% monthly increase reverses last month’s -0.1% deflation figure. The Core CPI which excludes food and energy was up 2.8% … Read more

March CPI is 2.4%

Overview:                   Today, we got the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.4% for the last year and -0.1% for the month. That’s a big decrease from last month’s 2.8%, below expectations of 2.5%, and the monthly number represents deflation. Small deflation, but it’s in the right direction. The Core … Read more

Tariffs – What if Everyone is Wrong?

Introduction: I watched President Trump’s tariff press conference yesterday. When the Wall Street Journal reported that the tariff level would be only 10%, the equity indexes traded up about 2% in the aftermarket. Then, the President pulled out charts that showed that in addition to the 10% baseline tariff, there would be additional reciprocal tariffs … Read more

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