Bitcoin is an asset with no cash flows, no interest payments, and no fundamentals. That means explanations for short-term volatility are often little more than guesses. However, this time, there is an easy explanation for the volatility of the recent few weeks. In general, Bitcoin and gold tend to experience higher dollar prices when the … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.7% for the last year and up 0.2% for the month (annualizes to 2.4%). The annual number is flat from June and 0.1% below expectations. The monthly is up 0.2% and consistent with expectations. The Core CPI which … Read more
Federal Reserve Governor, Kugler, resigned early, and President Trump has the opportunity to select her predecessor. The President will also be able to replace Chairman Powell when his term expires next May. As usual, FinX (Formerly FinTwit) and the financial press are losing their minds that President Trump has the opportunity to select the people … Read more
The US and the EU reached a trade deal that was a one-sided adjustment in favor of the US. Somehow, reporters keep failing to mention the continent’s previous trade barriers against the US and the resulting large trade deficit. The Fed stays on “pause” an unpopular move, but I agree with them, or at least … Read more
The Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve concluded its July meeting and to the surprise of no one, left interest rates unchanged. I think it was the right move. The economy seems to be doing well-enough and inflation remains above the 2% target (which I continue to insist is 2% too high). DKI has been outspoken … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.7% for the last year and up 0.3% for the month (annualizes to 3.7%). The annual number is up 0.3% from May and 0.1% above expectations. The monthly is up 0.2% and consistent with expectations. The Core CPI … Read more
Lots of tariff-related non-news this week. The CPI was up by 0.1% which was far from the disaster predicted by fiat economists. Energy has been a tailwind and may become a headwind. Shelter may become a tailwind. Either way, prices of goods are not rising as feared. The press report on the jobs report is … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.4% for the last year and up 0.1% for the month. The annual number is up 0.1% from April and in line with expectations. The monthly is down 0.1% and below expectations. The Core CPI which excludes food … Read more
I’m getting a lot of questions right now about the overall market. People are noticing some strange trading. This morning, the S&P 500 ($SPY) and the NASDAQ ($QQQ) both opened down, traded back to flattish/up small, then fell in the afternoon ending the day down 1.6% and 1.4% respectively. The whole market is volatile right … Read more
The new CPI was a win for the disinflation crowd as the all-items inflation metric falls to 2.3%. On the other hand, we’ve been above the 2% target for 50 straight months, and I think the target is 2% too high. The market celebrated a temporary tariff truce with China as both sides agree to … Read more
