Inflation

The Fed Cuts – QE is Back

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The Federal Reserve concluded its last meeting of 2025 and as expected, lowered the fed funds rate by 25bp (.25%). In an increasingly more common event there was dissent. For years, any Fed Governor dissenting was unusual. Any arguments were held behind closed doors while the committee presented a unified face to the public. Today’s … Read more

The 2% Target Has Been Abandoned

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Overview: The Federal Reserve concluded its October meeting and as expected, lowered the fed funds rate by 25bp (.25%). The market celebrated…until Chairman Powell said that the Fed hadn’t decided to cut another 25bp in December. This caused the market to fall, but I’m not sure under what circumstances he would have said the decision … Read more

September CPI is 3.0%

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Overview: Today, we got the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 3.0% for the last year and up 0.3% for the month (annualizes to 3.7%). The annual number is up 0.1% from August and 0.1% below expectations. The monthly is up 0.3% and 0.1% below expectations. The Core CPI … Read more

It’s Not a Market Event

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We’re nearing another Shutdown Theater event where people pretend the government “shutting down” will result in disaster and both “sides” engaging in brinkmanship gaming. Prediction markets indicate that it’s likely we get a shutdown at midnight tonight. The stock market has shrugged and indicated it doesn’t care. Fiat economists are threatening that each day the … Read more

Federal Reserve – As Expected

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The Fed press release just came out. I’m getting you my quick bullet points now. Powell press conference in 15 minutes. I’ll update if he says anything that changes my conclusions. – Fed lowers 25bp (.25%) as expected. This is what the market and DKI thought would happen. – There was one dissent. Miran, the … Read more

Macro Update – I’m Shocked – Well, Not That Shocked

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I write these macro updates infrequently. I try to do so when I have something significant to say that’s different from the dominant narrative. Conventional wisdom in the markets is correct more often than not. But when I find myself annoyed at the obvious falsehoods in the financial reporting and on Fin-X on a daily … Read more

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