The Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve concluded its July meeting and to the surprise of no one, left interest rates unchanged. I think it was the right move. The economy seems to be doing well-enough and inflation remains above the 2% target (which I continue to insist is 2% too high). DKI has been outspoken … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.7% for the last year and up 0.3% for the month (annualizes to 3.7%). The annual number is up 0.3% from May and 0.1% above expectations. The monthly is up 0.2% and consistent with expectations. The Core CPI … Read more
Lots of tariff-related non-news this week. The CPI was up by 0.1% which was far from the disaster predicted by fiat economists. Energy has been a tailwind and may become a headwind. Shelter may become a tailwind. Either way, prices of goods are not rising as feared. The press report on the jobs report is … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.4% for the last year and up 0.1% for the month. The annual number is up 0.1% from April and in line with expectations. The monthly is down 0.1% and below expectations. The Core CPI which excludes food … Read more
I’m getting a lot of questions right now about the overall market. People are noticing some strange trading. This morning, the S&P 500 ($SPY) and the NASDAQ ($QQQ) both opened down, traded back to flattish/up small, then fell in the afternoon ending the day down 1.6% and 1.4% respectively. The whole market is volatile right … Read more
The new CPI was a win for the disinflation crowd as the all-items inflation metric falls to 2.3%. On the other hand, we’ve been above the 2% target for 50 straight months, and I think the target is 2% too high. The market celebrated a temporary tariff truce with China as both sides agree to … Read more
Leading off the week was the Federal Reserve which took no action and surprised no one. DKI thinks this was the right move. Of greater concern, had they lowered the fed funds rate, we think the yield on the 10-year would have increased. The Fed remains trapped and irrelevant. US oil inventories are down at … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.3% for the last year and up 0.2% for the month. Those are both 0.1% below expectations. The 0.2% monthly increase reverses last month’s -0.1% deflation figure. The Core CPI which excludes food and energy was up 2.8% … Read more
The big news of the week was President Trump delaying tariff implementation for 90 days, a possibility I outlined for DKI subscribers the previous Sunday. Tariffs remain in place for China which responded with public insults and by increasing their own tariffs. They threatened to watch fewer Hollywood films, something I expect is of zero … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.4% for the last year and -0.1% for the month. That’s a big decrease from last month’s 2.8%, below expectations of 2.5%, and the monthly number represents deflation. Small deflation, but it’s in the right direction. The Core … Read more
