I’m getting a lot of questions right now about the overall market. People are noticing some strange trading. This morning, the S&P 500 ($SPY) and the NASDAQ ($QQQ) both opened down, traded back to flattish/up small, then fell in the afternoon ending the day down 1.6% and 1.4% respectively. The whole market is volatile right … Read more
The new CPI was a win for the disinflation crowd as the all-items inflation metric falls to 2.3%. On the other hand, we’ve been above the 2% target for 50 straight months, and I think the target is 2% too high. The market celebrated a temporary tariff truce with China as both sides agree to … Read more
Leading off the week was the Federal Reserve which took no action and surprised no one. DKI thinks this was the right move. Of greater concern, had they lowered the fed funds rate, we think the yield on the 10-year would have increased. The Fed remains trapped and irrelevant. US oil inventories are down at … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.3% for the last year and up 0.2% for the month. Those are both 0.1% below expectations. The 0.2% monthly increase reverses last month’s -0.1% deflation figure. The Core CPI which excludes food and energy was up 2.8% … Read more
The big news of the week was President Trump delaying tariff implementation for 90 days, a possibility I outlined for DKI subscribers the previous Sunday. Tariffs remain in place for China which responded with public insults and by increasing their own tariffs. They threatened to watch fewer Hollywood films, something I expect is of zero … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.4% for the last year and -0.1% for the month. That’s a big decrease from last month’s 2.8%, below expectations of 2.5%, and the monthly number represents deflation. Small deflation, but it’s in the right direction. The Core … Read more
Introduction: I watched President Trump’s tariff press conference yesterday. When the Wall Street Journal reported that the tariff level would be only 10%, the equity indexes traded up about 2% in the aftermarket. Then, the President pulled out charts that showed that in addition to the 10% baseline tariff, there would be additional reciprocal tariffs … Read more
In 2021, Chairman Powell and Secretary Yellen said inflation was transitory. In 2023, political commentator and MMT enthusiast, Paul Krugman, said we had defeated inflation. In 2025, the PCE (the preferred inflation metric of the Fed) has made no real progress in the past year and the Core PCE is rising again. Retail investors are … Read more
The Federal Reserve concluded its March meeting and surprised no one by keeping the fed funds rate unchanged. Let’s go through the details: As I type this, Jerome Powell is delivering his prepared remarks at his press conference and reiterated his typical language of being “data driven”. He’s also talking about a higher-than-usual level … Read more
