The CPI stays locked in a tight range thanks to the BLS presenting a constantly-understated version. High inflation continues regardless of the official statistics or the actions of the Fed. Chairman Powell announced that he’s being investigated causing political actors to bemoan the politization of the Fed. The Fed has always been a political institution … Read more
The December CPI was announced yesterday. Normally, I do an immediate detailed analysis. That made sense when wildly fluctuating inflation metrics had a real impact on what the Fed was going to do. I see the data as less valuable and timely right now. The December CPI was 2.7% with the Core CPI at 2.6%. … Read more
Overview: There’s been a lot in the news and on Fin-X lately about Japan, record gold prices, and skyrocketing silver. Here’s a quick summary of the situation(s). Japan: I was going to write a long explanation, and then realized I’ve covered this in detail in the past. The short version is Japan ran up … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.7% for the last year. There was no October report due to the government shutdown so there will be no monthly comparisons in this piece. The annual number is down 0.3% from the September report and 0.4% below … Read more
The Federal Reserve concluded its last meeting of 2025 and as expected, lowered the fed funds rate by 25bp (.25%). In an increasingly more common event there was dissent. For years, any Fed Governor dissenting was unusual. Any arguments were held behind closed doors while the committee presented a unified face to the public. Today’s … Read more
Sorry about the click-bait headline; evidently social media is influencing me, regardless of how much I despise it. Right now, opinions on what happens next in the economy and the market are coalescing around four scenarios: Pour Gas on the Fire: More stimulus and an accommodating Fed lead to continued nominal growth and a … Read more
Overview: The Federal Reserve concluded its October meeting and as expected, lowered the fed funds rate by 25bp (.25%). The market celebrated…until Chairman Powell said that the Fed hadn’t decided to cut another 25bp in December. This caused the market to fall, but I’m not sure under what circumstances he would have said the decision … Read more
