Forward: Most DKI interns arrive with a clear understanding of macroeconomics and a justified suspicion of the failing fiat system. Even in that exceptional group, Alex Petrou stood apart. He was an early Bitcoiner and his pointed, polite, and reasonable questions of officials from the Bank of England have left them uncomfortable and unable to … Read more
As expected, the Federal Reserve raised the overnight rate by 25bp (.25%). I think this was both the right move and irrelevant. Others disagree. – The Fed cited high inflation, high spending, high employment, and solid economic growth. – The dot plot shows 2 Governors who expect to keep the current fed funds rate through … Read more
I’m in San Salvador for a few days followed by a longer trip to Montevideo, Uruguay. After that, I’ll have a week in Buenos Aires, a week in Florence, and will spend November in Japan. I’m open to a small number of in-person conversations. If you’re based locally, or know someone in those locations you … Read more
CPI of 3.4% was in line with expectations and consistent with last month’s 3.4%. The monthly change was 0.4% driven by fuel and shelter. The monthly increase annualizes to 4.9%. Core CPI of 2.4% was also in line with estimates and slightly below last month’s 2.5%. The monthly change of 0.3% was above estimates … Read more
On Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, spoke at Jackson Hole. He reiterated a commitment to the 2% inflation target and noted that inflation isn’t under control. Most importantly, he acknowledged that the current policy isn’t restrictive. His predecessor, Jerome Powell, used to comment often that he thought Fed policy was restrictive. Most saw the … Read more
CPI of 3.4% was in line with expectations and a small decrease vs last month’s 3.5%. The monthly change was 0.1% and as usual, was driven by shelter which accounted for two-thirds of the rise. Core CPI of 2.5% was also in line with estimates and slightly below last month’s 2.6%. The monthly change of … Read more
I’m still in Antigua, Guatemala where the weather is beautiful and I was woken up at 1am by the second earthquake in two weeks here. If one of you has upset a volcano, please apologize. The Federal Reserve kept the fed funds rate unchanged. Many expressed concern regarding the three dissenters who wanted a 25bp … Read more
The Federal Reserve concluded its July meeting and elected to keep the fed funds rate unchanged. Wall Street had a meaningful probability on a small rate hike (around 33%). While I understood the logic, and would have voted to hike had I been in the room, I was on record saying I thought they’d hold. … Read more
Quick announcement: I’m off and working from new locations for another year. I’ll be in Antigua, Guatemala for the next few weeks. While I’m here, I’m open to a small number of in-person conversations. If you’re based locally, or know someone here you think it would be worthwhile for me to meet, feel free to … Read more
