The Fed concluded its January meeting, and as expected, took no action. Most Fed Governors voted to maintain the current fed funds rate with two dissents favoring a small 25bp (.25%) cut. The market shrugged and finished flat(ish) to up small depending on your favored index. This was a reasonable reaction. Many are still … Read more
The CPI stays locked in a tight range thanks to the BLS presenting a constantly-understated version. High inflation continues regardless of the official statistics or the actions of the Fed. Chairman Powell announced that he’s being investigated causing political actors to bemoan the politization of the Fed. The Fed has always been a political institution … Read more
The Fed cuts by 25bp as expected with more Fed Governors dissenting. At this point, nothing the Fed is going to do actually affects the rate at which businesses and homebuyers borrow. However, a restart of QE (however you want to define the term) means they’re committed to more inflation. The DKI portfolio is prepared … Read more
Overview: The Federal Reserve concluded its October meeting and as expected, lowered the fed funds rate by 25bp (.25%). The market celebrated…until Chairman Powell said that the Fed hadn’t decided to cut another 25bp in December. This caused the market to fall, but I’m not sure under what circumstances he would have said the decision … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.9% for the last year and up 0.4% for the month (annualizes to 4.9%). The annual number is up 0.2% from July and 0.1% above expectations. The monthly is up 0.2% and 0.1% above expectations. The Core CPI … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.7% for the last year and up 0.2% for the month (annualizes to 2.4%). The annual number is flat from June and 0.1% below expectations. The monthly is up 0.2% and consistent with expectations. The Core CPI which … Read more
The Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve concluded its July meeting and to the surprise of no one, left interest rates unchanged. I think it was the right move. The economy seems to be doing well-enough and inflation remains above the 2% target (which I continue to insist is 2% too high). DKI has been outspoken … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.7% for the last year and up 0.3% for the month (annualizes to 3.7%). The annual number is up 0.3% from May and 0.1% above expectations. The monthly is up 0.2% and consistent with expectations. The Core CPI … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.4% for the last year and up 0.1% for the month. The annual number is up 0.1% from April and in line with expectations. The monthly is down 0.1% and below expectations. The Core CPI which excludes food … Read more
The new CPI was a win for the disinflation crowd as the all-items inflation metric falls to 2.3%. On the other hand, we’ve been above the 2% target for 50 straight months, and I think the target is 2% too high. The market celebrated a temporary tariff truce with China as both sides agree to … Read more
