In a week of silly and contradictory headlines, the Federal Reserve takes the top spot. The world’s premiere central bank managed to lower the fed funds rate into increasing inflation while reducing future rate hike expectations. Every month, they appear more political. After a month of reporting on weak consumer sales in high-priced discretionary items, … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.7% for the last year and 0.3% for the month (annualizes to 3.7%). That’s above last month’s 2.6% and above the prior month’s 2.4%. It was in-line with expectations. The Core CPI which excludes food and energy was … Read more
The long-awaited moment came late last week when Bitcoin crossed $100k. Being a volatile asset, it’s already crossed that level multiple times in the few days since giving anyone who missed the first crossing ample opportunity to celebrate. Despite being wrong by 100x (10,000%!!!), Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff comes up with a novel excuse for why … Read more
Each time Nvidia $NVDA reports earnings, it’s the most important earnings announcement ever. Results were fantastic, but already incorporated into market expectations leading to little stock reaction. Walmart $WMT and Target $TGT indicate the consumer is shifting to lower-priced retail. It’s yet another indication that consumers prefer a drive for lower prices over a focus … Read more
A while back, we tried to transition to more stock-related “Things” for this piece. Then, we get a week like this one where all the news is macro and inflation. We’re nothing if not flexible so that’s what we have this week. Inflation indexes come in above expectations and above last month. DKI warned the … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.6% for the last year and 0.2% for the month. That’s above last month’s 2.4% and in-line with expectations. The Core CPI which excludes food and energy was up 3.3% vs last year and up 0.3% from last … Read more
The polls have been inaccurate for the past three US Presidential elections. Knowing that, DKI was watching Bitcoin, the prediction markets, and a few other select stocks and economic markers to see that a Trump landslide was coming long before the network announcers could do so. Could we get a sound money advocate as Federal … Read more
The Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate by 25bp (.25%). This was expected and the stock market isn’t reacting. Futures markets indicate an expectation for another 25bp cut in December. That also reflects no change from prior expectations. The Powell press conference begins in 15 minutes. Information contained in this report, and in … Read more
All summer and fall, we saw market analysts claim the Fed won the war on inflation. This week, the Core PCE remained stubbornly high. Some claim we’re heading for stagflation. We should pay attention to that warning. 3Q GDP came in below last quarter. Even worse, this economic “growth” is really value-destroying government spending pushing … Read more
Published to the Deep Knowledge Investing blog on November 3rd, 2024. I have been writing less about the macro-economic environment lately. That’s been for two reasons. The primary one is in 2022 and through much of 2023, it was macro considerations that were driving the market. Understanding what was happening with inflation and the Federal … Read more
