Yesterday, the Federal Reserve “paused” keeping the fed funds rate unchanged. President Trump has been critical of Chairman Powell in public. Chairman Powell has refused to answer questions about President Trump, but is intentionally initiating conflict. I think both men have good and bad points on this topic so let’s dive in to all four … Read more
The Federal Reserve will conclude its first meeting of 2025 later today, and Chairman Powell will hold his usual afternoon press conference. Some market observers are describing this as the least suspenseful meeting of the past three years, and I agree with them. The current consensus (almost 100%) opinion is that the Fed will leave … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.9% for the last year and 0.4% for the month (annualizes to 4.9%). That’s above last month’s 2.7% and above the prior month’s 2.6%. It was in-line with expectations. The Core CPI which excludes food and energy was … Read more
One issue I’ve spent a lot of time discussing with people over the past few months is the recent increase in bond yields. In mid-September, the 10-year Treasury was yielding 3.61%. Despite (or because of) 100bp of Fed rate cuts, the yield on that same security is now up to 4.67%. Some market observers are … Read more
Happy New Year to everyone. We’re going to kick off 2025 by re-releasing an expanded and improved version of our 2021 white paper where we challenged Nassim Taleb’s assertion that Bitcoin was worth zero. The official release will be on Twitter/X in the middle of the week. We’re asking everyone to like and repost so … Read more
In a week of silly and contradictory headlines, the Federal Reserve takes the top spot. The world’s premiere central bank managed to lower the fed funds rate into increasing inflation while reducing future rate hike expectations. Every month, they appear more political. After a month of reporting on weak consumer sales in high-priced discretionary items, … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.7% for the last year and 0.3% for the month (annualizes to 3.7%). That’s above last month’s 2.6% and above the prior month’s 2.4%. It was in-line with expectations. The Core CPI which excludes food and energy was … Read more
The long-awaited moment came late last week when Bitcoin crossed $100k. Being a volatile asset, it’s already crossed that level multiple times in the few days since giving anyone who missed the first crossing ample opportunity to celebrate. Despite being wrong by 100x (10,000%!!!), Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff comes up with a novel excuse for why … Read more
Each time Nvidia $NVDA reports earnings, it’s the most important earnings announcement ever. Results were fantastic, but already incorporated into market expectations leading to little stock reaction. Walmart $WMT and Target $TGT indicate the consumer is shifting to lower-priced retail. It’s yet another indication that consumers prefer a drive for lower prices over a focus … Read more
A while back, we tried to transition to more stock-related “Things” for this piece. Then, we get a week like this one where all the news is macro and inflation. We’re nothing if not flexible so that’s what we have this week. Inflation indexes come in above expectations and above last month. DKI warned the … Read more
