The R-star and Shoplifting Issue Lots of interesting news this week where we address these important questions: Jerome Powell is again more hawkish than the market expected or hoped. Rates to 6%? More bank downgrades. One bank index shows no shareholder value creation in 25 years. Nvidia ($NVDA) has a fantastic quarter and the stock … Read more
The Surprisingly Strong Macro and Weak Company Issue Last week’s issue was titled “The Surprisingly Weak Macro Issue” due to multiple negative data points on the economy. Consistent with a trend of inconsistent data which DKI has been pointing out since last November, we got multiple positive data points this week combined with some concerning … Read more
The Surprisingly Weak Macro Issue As we approach the tail-end of 2Q company earnings, the market turned back to focusing on more macro issues, and was immediately “rewarded” by lots of not-so-good news. In this week’s 5 Things, we’ll cover: CPI rose and Core CPI remains sticky. Will the index continue to rise? PPI wasn’t … Read more
The Sovereign Debt Explosion Issue This was the most fascinating week I’ve seen in the sovereign debt market in decades. Sovereign debt is just a fancy name for government bonds. Are we looking at the beginning of a multi-country sovereign debt disaster? Plus, the Saudis extend an oil production cut, a government bailout still leads … Read more
The Corporate Earnings and Clickbait Issue In honor of the entire mainstream media squawking about interest rates at 22-year highs (while being in-line with long-term trends), we’ll be introducing all of this week’s “Things” with clickbait headlines. This week, DKI readers and Twitter (or “X”) followers will get to read about: Fed Raises to Highest … Read more
The Banking Issue The banks announced earnings this week. We’ll examine the performance of the Too Big to Fail (TBTF) banks vs the investment banks vs the regionals. Does the government have their thumb on the scale pushing deposits and profitability to one sector? Yes, and we’ll discuss why it matters. Plus, bonus points on … Read more
The Disinflation Issue Lots of disinflation news this week. Disinflation means a reduction in the rate of inflation. Prices are still going up, but at a slower rate. The data doesn’t paint a perfect picture, and we’ll elaborate in the “Things” below. We also have some new information on the year’s best antitrust case, and … Read more
The It’s All About the Employment Report(s) Issue This week, we get conflicting employment reports implying again that more people have taken second and third jobs part time jobs. China announces weak manufacturing data. The Federal Reserve is about to present Japan with a big problem. Finally, we take on the question of whether inflation … Read more
The Higher for Longer Part II Declared Jerome “The Hammer” Powell Issue Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, continues to hammer home his “higher for longer” mantra regarding rates. The pivot will come eventually, but no time soon. The economy is showing surprising strength, and while there is still some ambiguity to the data, the nightmare economic … Read more
The Higher for Longer and Jerome’s not Kidding Issue Jerome Powell tells the “pivot people” higher for longer. We’ve been seeing inconsistent economic data turning more negative. DKI Board Member Mish Shedlock illustrates this point and Michael Gayed warns about the possibility of another round of stagflation. DKI agrees with both of them. Charlie Biello … Read more
