The polls have been inaccurate for the past three US Presidential elections. Knowing that, DKI was watching Bitcoin, the prediction markets, and a few other select stocks and economic markers to see that a Trump landslide was coming long before the network announcers could do so. Could we get a sound money advocate as Federal … Read more
The Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate by 25bp (.25%). This was expected and the stock market isn’t reacting. Futures markets indicate an expectation for another 25bp cut in December. That also reflects no change from prior expectations. The Powell press conference begins in 15 minutes. Information contained in this report, and in … Read more
All summer and fall, we saw market analysts claim the Fed won the war on inflation. This week, the Core PCE remained stubbornly high. Some claim we’re heading for stagflation. We should pay attention to that warning. 3Q GDP came in below last quarter. Even worse, this economic “growth” is really value-destroying government spending pushing … Read more
Hi All, You’ve already been reminded 1,000 times to go vote. I’m just back from securing democracy here in CT. If you want to know my views regarding the market implications of the election, there’s a detailed section on that in the long Macro Update I posted yesterday. Just know that whether you’re team red … Read more
Published to the Deep Knowledge Investing blog on November 3rd, 2024. I have been writing less about the macro-economic environment lately. That’s been for two reasons. The primary one is in 2022 and through much of 2023, it was macro considerations that were driving the market. Understanding what was happening with inflation and the Federal … Read more
We’ve now entered earnings season. Las Vegas Sands $LVS misses the headline numbers, but looking a bit deeper, it was a great quarter. Starbucks $SBUX misses badly. DKI thinks they’re focused on too many things that don’t affect the customer experience. Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller are avoiding owning bonds joining DKI in our … Read more
Central banks shatter irony meters as a Fed Governor insists they have unlimited dollars, but it’s Bitcoin that has no value. Not to be outdone, the European Central Bank lowers interest rates and at the same time, warns of coming higher inflation. They’d be better off admitting they’re trapped than saying nonsensical things in public. … Read more
Most of this week’s 5 Things relates to government mismanagement of the economy. We draw two conclusions. First, the government should involve itself in less of the economy. Second, we should have called this “The Government is Mismanaging Things Edition”. One month after DKI told you the Fed cut rates too soon, the Core CPI … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.4% for the last year and 0.2% for the month. That’s slightly below last month’s 2.5% and above expectations by 0.1%. The 0.2% monthly increase was above the 0.1% expected. The Core CPI which excludes food and energy … Read more
Hi All, The CPI will be announced at 8:30 Eastern Time today. I’ll have full analysis out on that this morning, but with intern Andrew traveling, will need an extra few minutes to update the graphs. As a result, the update won’t be out before we send the 9am email. For those of you who … Read more
